Different pathways of the second demographic transition in four East Asian societies: evidence from the 2006 and 2016 East Asian Social Surveys

Abstract

This study uses the 2006 and 2016 East Asian Social Surveys to map value changes related to the second demographic transition in mainland China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. The study examines trends in attitudes towards cohabitation, childrearing, and divorce over a 10-year period in the four East Asian societies. The findings suggest that the second demographic transition, if any in East Asia, is an uneven process between societies, and mainland China stands out as the only society in which attitudes had become more conservative, even after controlling for compositional differences in population. In the other three societies, attitudes had shifted to be more liberal. Moreover, the study finds little evidence on the diffusion within societies, given their similar trends across different sociodemographic groups. From an ideational perspective, mainland China and the other three East Asian societies illustrated different patterns of attitude changes regarding marriage and family. From a behavioral perspective, trends in attitudes do not always align with demographic patterns at the macro level, especially in mainland China. More studies are needed to understand the nuanced differences in ideational shifts between societies and the relationship between ideational and behavioral changes in East Asia.