Different climate response of three tree ring proxies of Pinus sylvestris from the Eastern Carpathians, Romania

Nagavciuc, Viorica; Roibu, Cătălin-Constantin; Ionita, Monica; Mursa, Andrei; Cotos, Mihai-Gabriel; Popa, Ionel

doi:10.1016/j.dendro.2019.02.007

Cited by 30 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Kaczka et al 2017 [44] indicates that the highest temperature relevance for tree growth occurs between Jun 9th and Jul 19th while Pritzkow et al 2014 [76] determines it between Jul 7th and Jul 29th, which in both cases highlights the relevance of summer temperatures on tree growth, where in Northern Poland we define the early spring period as thermally relevant. Seo et al 2008 [77], Kaczka et al 2017 [44], Nagavciuc et al 2019 [78] reported that the use of daily climatic data was more reliable as there was a higher correlation with ring-widths. Moreover, they found that the flexible time interval based upon days rather than months adapted to the vegetation period of plants better.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the Climate-Growth Response of Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Northern Poland

et al. 2021

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Research Highlights: This study used a 99-year time-series of daily climatic data to determine the climate-growth relationship for Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) growing in Northern Poland. The use of daily climatic data improved the calculated climatic response of the trees. Background and Objectives: It was hypothesised that daily temperature and precipitation data would more precisely identify climate–growth relationships than monthly data. We compared our results to a previous study conducted in the 1990s that utilised monthly precipitation and temperature data. Materials and Methods: The chronology construction and data analyses were performed using CooRecorder, CDendro and R packages (dplR, treeclim, dendrotools). Forty-nine cores from 31 trees were included in the final chronology. Results: The precipitation and temperature of March had the strongest influence upon ring-widths. Despite a statistically significant correlation between monthly temperature and ring-widths, reduction of error (RE) and coefficient of efficiency (CE) statistics confirmed that daily data better describe the effect of climate on tree rings width than monthly data. Conclusions: At this site, the growing season of Scots pine has changed with the observed association with precipitation now starting as early as February–March and extending to June–July.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the Climate-Growth Response of Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Northern Poland

et al. 2021

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“…In the previous section, we used CCA to identify the large-scale drivers of April PP, but CCA does not consider if the relationship between two variables is stationary in time or not. To overcome the problem of non-stationarity and to test if the identified coupled mode of variability between April PP and April Z500 is stable over time, we employed a methodology used for the monthly to seasonal prediction of the mean runoff of the Elbe River 55,56 and in dendroclimatological studies 57,58 . A detailed description of the methodology is given in Ionita (2017) 59 .…”

Section: Stability Mapsmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the curious case of the recent decade, mid-spring precipitation deficit in central Europe

et al. 2020

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Central Europe has experienced a severe drought almost every April for the last 14 years consecutively, driven by record high temperatures, low flows, high evapotranspiration, and high soil moisture deficit. The dynamic of this recent and recurrent mid-spring dryness is not yet understood. Here we show that the period 2007–2020 was characterized by a reduction of ~50% of the usual April rainfall amount over large areas in central Europe. The precipitation deficit and the record high temperatures were triggered by a multiyear recurrent high-pressure system centered over the North Sea and northern Germany and a decline in the temperature gradient between the Arctic region and the mid-latitudes, which diverted the Atlantic storm tracks northward. From a long-term perspective, the precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture anomalies observed over the last 14 years have reached the highest amplitudes over the observational record. Our study provides an in-depth analysis of the hydroclimate extremes in central Europe over the last 140 years and their atmospheric drivers, enabling us to increase our dynamical understating of long-term dry periods, which is vital to enhance forecasting and mitigation of such events.

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“…The 80% and 85% levels are used as "buffer zones" and only grid cells where the correlation is above 90% significance level, are retained for further analysis. The methodology has been already tested for the prediction of the spring streamflow condition for the Elbe river 16 , as well as for the prediction of the September Arctic Sea ice 19 and in dendroclimatological studies 20,21 . In this respect, this study describes the performance of a statistical model in predicting low flow situations for the major watersheds in Germany: Rhine and Elbe (Fig.…”

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Forecasting low flow conditions months in advance through teleconnection patterns, with a special focus on summer 2018

Ionita

Nagavciuc

2020

Sci Rep

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Over the past decades, Europe has been affected by several low flow periods which had substantial impacts on the hydrology of the rivers themselves as well as on the society and economy. Low flow periods have a direct impact on the environment, on the inland waterway navigation, on the hydropower production as well as on the sediment management, among others. Similar to floods, low flows are naturally occurring phenomena which can significantly hinder different uses and functions of the rivers and impact the aquatic system and the water quality. Moreover, it is projected that, in the future, climate change might lead to drier summers over the european region and therefore to more frequent and severe low flow periods. The results presented here show that the summer 2018 low flow situation, over the Rhine and Elbe Rivers basin, could have been predicted up to two seasons ahead by using previous months' sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, precipitation, mean air temperature and soil moisture. the lagged relationship between the predictand (e.g. seasonal streamflow) and the climate and oceanic predictors varies between 1 month (e.g. precipitation) up to 6 months (e.g. sea surface temperature). Taking into account that all predictors are available in realtime, the forecast scheme can be used to provide early warnings for the upcoming low flow situations, thus offering the possibility for better management of the water resources. Drought is among the costliest and damaging disasters in the world and is a naturally occurring phenomenon that can affect large land areas and can prevail over extended periods (e.g. several months up to a few years). Over the last two decades, the European region has witnessed a series of long-lasting dry and hot summers (2003, 2010, 2015, and 2018, among others) 1-3. For example, the year 2018 over the central part of Europe, especially Germany, was extraordinarily hot and dry. For Germany, the period April-July 2018 was the warmest since 1,880 and different meteorological stations have reached all-time maximum temperature records. This situation was also exacerbated by a rainfall deficit since February 2018. Overall, in Europe, the monetary losses caused by hydrological and meteorological extremes, over the period 1980-2017, amounted to ~ 453 billion Euro 4. Prolonged dry periods, such as the ones observed in the last decades (e.g. 2003, 2015, and 2018) have emphasized the degree of vulnerability of society to this natural hazard and alerted different governmental agencies and stakeholders regarding the damaging effects drought can have on the economy and society 5,6. Moreover, the IPCC fifth assessment report 7 concludes that the magnitude and frequency of extreme events (e.g. droughts, floods, heatwaves, compound events) will increase globally in the future and large areas of the European continent will be exposed to increased drought risk and possibly to more frequent and long-lasting low flow periods. Prolonged low flow periods may result in several types of issues for the soc...

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Different climate response of three tree ring proxies of Pinus sylvestris from the Eastern Carpathians, Romania

Cited by 30 publications

References 39 publications

Investigating the Climate-Growth Response of Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Northern Poland

Investigating the Climate-Growth Response of Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Northern Poland

On the curious case of the recent decade, mid-spring precipitation deficit in central Europe

Forecasting low flow conditions months in advance through teleconnection patterns, with a special focus on summer 2018

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