Differences in the seismicity preceding the 2007 and 2014 eruptions of Kelud volcano, Indonesia

Hidayati, Sri; Triastuty, Hetty; Mulyana, Iyan; Adi, Sucahyo; Ishihara, Kumatoshi; Basuki, Ahmad; Kuswandarto, Heri; Priyanto, Budi; Solikhin, Akhmad

doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2018.10.017

Cited by 23 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…This load increase suggests if heavy typhoon rains had not coincided with the eruption, that the total number of roof collapses, and the 189 deaths attributed to these collapses, would likely have both been reduced (Paladio-Melasantos et al 1996;Lin et al 2020). Similarly, following the 1990 eruption of Kelud volcano, Indonesia, all 34 recorded casualties were caused by roof collapse at a single evacuation centre, under the weight of tephra that had been made heavier -by an unmeasured amount -by rain (Bourdier et al 1997;Hidayati et al 2019). More recently at Kelud, Williams et al (2020) conducted a remote building damage and vulnerability assessment, using tephra thicknesses and a published dry deposit density value of 1400 kg m −3 to estimate tephra loading on buildings from Kelud's 2014 eruption.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How rainfall influences tephra fall loading — an experimental approach

et al. 2021

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The load a tephra fall deposit applies to an underlying surface is a key factor controlling its potential to damage a wide range of assets including buildings, trees, crops and powerlines. Though it has long been recognised that loading can increase when deposits absorb rainfall, few efforts have been made to quantify likely load increases. This study builds on previous theoretical work, using an experimental approach to quantify change in load as a function of grainsize distribution, rainfall intensity and duration. A total of 20 laboratory experiments were carried out for ~ 10-cm thick, dry tephra deposits of varying grainsize and grading, taken to represent different eruptive scenarios (e.g. stable, waxing or waning plume). Tephra was deposited onto a 15° impermeable slope (representing a low pitch roof) and exposed to simulated heavy rainfalls of 35 and 70 mm h−1 for durations of up to 2 h. Across all experiments, the maximum load increases ranged from 18 to 30%. Larger increases occurred in fine-grained to medium-grained deposits or in inversely graded deposits, as these retained water more efficiently. The lowest increases occurred in normally graded deposits as rain was unable to infiltrate to the deposit’s base. In deposits composed entirely of coarse tephra, high drainage rates meant the amount of water absorbed was controlled by the deposit’s capillary porosity, rather than its total porosity, resulting in load increases that were smaller than expected. These results suggest that, for low pitch roofs, the maximum deposit load increase due to rainfall is around 30%, significantly lower than the oft-referenced 100%. To complement our experimental results, field measurements of tephra thickness should be supplemented with tephra loading measurements, wherever possible, especially when measurements are made at or near the site of observed damage.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How rainfall influences tephra fall loading — an experimental approach

et al. 2021

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“…A regional L‐band interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) survey did not detect deformation prior to the eruption (Philibosian & Simons, ). However, tiltmeter data from the crater rim showed continuous uplift from July to the beginning of September and the depths of VT earthquakes ranged from 5 km to just beneath the crater during this period (Hidayati et al, , ). The VT earthquakes stopped several days before the eruption and were replaced by low magnitude ‘drumbeat’ like seismicity (Nakamichi et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The hypocenters of the seismicity were located centrally, 1–2 km below the bottom of the crater (Triastuty et al, ). One tiltmeter showed gradual uplift of the crater area from December 2013 until 2 hr before the eruption, and the small crater lake showed an increase in temperature of 4 °C from January 2014; however, it is noted that single stations may record spurious signals (Nakamichi et al, ; Sri Hidayati et al, ; Triastuty et al, ). On 2 February, alert levels were changed from level 1 (normal) to level 2 (advisory), changing to level 3 (watch) on 10 February, and such was the fast ramp up of seismic activity in the last days, it was changed to level 4 (warning) only 90 min before the eruption.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Explosive Eruptions With Little Warning: Experimental Petrology and Volcano Monitoring Observations From the 2014 Eruption of Kelud, Indonesia

Cassidy

Ebmeier

Helo

et al. 2019

Geochem Geophys Geosyst

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Explosive eruptions that occur with little or no precursory unrest (less than a month) pose the greatest hazards from volcanoes to nearby populations. Here we focus on the preeruptive conditions for these explosive events, their triggers and how these eruptions evolve. We concentrate on Kelud volcano, where we have conducted a set of petrological experiments to understand preeruptive storage conditions for several recent eruptions. For the 2014 explosive eruption, we combine this with an analysis of interferometric synthetic aperture radar measured deformation. Our data suggest that both explosive and effusive eruptions at Kelud are sourced from a magma storage system at 2–4 km. However, explosive eruptions are fed by magma stored under relatively cool (~1000 °C) and water‐saturated conditions, whereas effusive eruptions are fed by slightly hotter (~1050 °C), water‐undersaturated magmas. We propose that the initial phase of the 2014 eruption was triggered by volatile overpressure, which then fostered top‐down decompression tapping discrete magma bodies. By compiling a global data set of monitoring signatures of explosive eruptions, we show that the onset of unrest rarely points to the shallow ascent of magma to the surface, as ascent mostly occurs in a matter of hours or minutes. We relate the timescale of preeruptive unrest to eruption triggering mechanisms, with yearly/decadal periods of unrest relating to magma injection events (which may or may not precede a magmatic eruption), whereas internal triggering (e.g., second boiling) of an already present, cooling magma body can lead to explosive eruptions with little warning.

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“…A series of drainage tunnels were constructed starting in 1919, dramatically reducing the lake's volume and potential for lahars to catastrophically affect large populations on the flanks of the volcano (Hizbaron et al, 2018). Activity over the past 100 years has been characterised by a cyclic pattern alternating between periods of effusive lava dome growth and subsequent dome destruction during explosive, Plinian eruptions that are typically short-lived and high intensity, and occur with relatively little precursory activity (Hidayati et al, 2019).…”

Section: Case Study Eruption: Kelud 2014mentioning

confidence: 99%

Remotely assessing tephra fall building damage and vulnerability: Kelud Volcano, Indonesia

et al. 2020

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Tephra from large explosive eruptions can cause damage to buildings over wide geographical areas, creating a variety of issues for post-eruption recovery. This means that evaluating the extent and nature of likely building damage from future eruptions is an important aspect of volcanic risk assessment. However, our ability to make accurate assessments is currently limited by poor characterisation of how buildings perform under varying tephra loads. This study presents a method to remotely assess building damage to increase the quantity of data available for developing new tephra fall building vulnerability models. Given the large number of damaged buildings and the high potential for loss in future eruptions, we use the Kelud 2014 eruption as a case study. A total of 1154 buildings affected by falls 1–10 cm thick were assessed, with 790 showing signs that they sustained damage in the time between pre- and post-eruption satellite image acquisitions. Only 27 of the buildings surveyed appear to have experienced severe roof or building collapse. Damage was more commonly characterised by collapse of roof overhangs and verandas or damage that required roof cladding replacement. To estimate tephra loads received by each building we used Tephra2 inversion and interpolation of hand-contoured isopachs on the same set of deposit measurements. Combining tephra loads from both methods with our damage assessment, we develop the first sets of tephra fall fragility curves that consider damage severities lower than severe roof collapse. Weighted prediction accuracies are calculated for the curves using K-fold cross validation, with scores between 0.68 and 0.75 comparable to those for fragility curves developed for other natural hazards. Remote assessment of tephra fall building damage is highly complementary to traditional field-based surveying and both approaches should ideally be adopted to improve our understanding of tephra fall impacts following future damaging eruptions.

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Differences in the seismicity preceding the 2007 and 2014 eruptions of Kelud volcano, Indonesia

Cited by 23 publications

References 22 publications

How rainfall influences tephra fall loading — an experimental approach

How rainfall influences tephra fall loading — an experimental approach

Explosive Eruptions With Little Warning: Experimental Petrology and Volcano Monitoring Observations From the 2014 Eruption of Kelud, Indonesia

Remotely assessing tephra fall building damage and vulnerability: Kelud Volcano, Indonesia

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