Differences in Factors Affecting Various Crash Types with High Numbers of Fatalities and Injuries in China

Abstract

ObjectivesRoad traffic crashes that involve very high numbers of fatalities and injuries arouse public concern wherever they occur. In China, there are two categories of such crashes: a crash that results in 10–30 fatalities, 50–100 serious injuries or a total cost of 50–100 million RMB ($US8-16m) is a “serious road traffic crash” (SRTC), while a crash that is even more severe or costly is a “particularly serious road traffic crash” (PSRTC). The aim of this study is to identify the main factors affecting different types of these crashes (single-vehicle, head-on, rear-end and side impact) with the ultimate goal of informing prevention activities and policies.MethodsDetailed descriptions of the SRTCs and PSRTCs that occurred from 2007 to 2014 were collected from the database “In-depth Investigation and Analysis System for Major Road Traffic Crashes” (IIASMRTC), which is maintained by the Traffic Management Research Institute of the Ministry of Public Security of China (TMRI). 18 main risk factors, which were categorized into four areas (participant, vehicle, road and environment-related) were chosen as potential independent variables for the multinomial logistic regression analysis. Comparisons were made among the single-vehicle, head-on, rear-end and side impact crashes in terms of factors affecting crash occurrence.FindingsFive risk factors were significant for the six multinomial logistic regression models, which were location, vertical alignment, roadside safety rating, driver distraction and overloading of cargo. It was indicated that intersections were more likely to have side impact SRTCs and PSRTCs, especially with poor visibility at night. Overloaded freight vehicles were more likely to be involved in a rear-end crash than other freight vehicles. Driver distraction is an important risk factor for head-on crashes, while vertical alignment and roadside safety rating are positively associated with single-vehicle crashes.ConclusionBased on the findings, promising measures were proposed to prevent each type of SRTC and PSRTC, which governmental or regulatory agencies could employ to plan strategies to reduce SRTCs and PSRTCs and support lifesaving policies.

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“…Finally, only three factors remained (as shown in Table 2 ). The likelihood ratio test shows that all of them are statistically significant at a 0.05 level of significance, and the overall prediction accuracy is desirable (79.1%) compared with previous literature [ 31 , 32 ].…”

“…The forward selection method was employed in the multinomial logistic regression analysis. The score test was used to determine the variable entry at a significance level of 0.05, while removal testing based on the maximum partial likelihood estimates at a significance level of 0.1 [ 31 ]. Finally, only three factors remained (as shown in Table 2 ).…”

Medicolegal Certificate;

“…Indiscriminate attack of the perpetrator and/or lack of safety measures (by victim) results in variety of law qualifying injuries e.g. in RTA 22 or interpersonal violence. Presence of head or face injuries (337-A1 or A2) in fighting is exact endorsement of a work 6 on physical assault.…”

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“…Estimation was executed with the Newton-Raphson algorithm to perform bias-reducing penalized likelihood optimization. Although alternative models including ordered probit or ordered logit were considered, the multinomial logit framework has several advantages, as described by Washington et al [ 39 ], Savolainen and Mannering [ 40 ], Yamamoto et al [ 41 ], Haleem and Gan [ 6 ], and Chen et al [ 42 ].…”