Differences and Congruencies between PVA Packages: the Importance of Sex Ratio for Predictions of Extinction Risk

Brook, Barry W.; Burgman, Mark A.; Frankham, Richard

doi:10.5751/es-00179-040106

Cited by 72 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…In contrast, a positive trend between population change and the proportion of males breeding was found in ortolan buntings (Emberiza hortulana) with a male-biased sex ratio (Steifetten and Dale, 2006). This result suggests that an adult population of Przewalski's gazelles with a higher proportion of females breeding can substantially increase the population's realized reproductive output (also see Brook et al, 2000a). Consequently, maintaining skewed sex ratios, achieved through altering the proportion of females breeding, could be an important factor in maintaining population viability.…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysiscontrasting

confidence: 41%

“…It has been suggested that although a temporary shortage of males can greatly decrease the breeding rate and increase the extinction risk in monogamous species, this potentially important stochastic element can be ignored in polygamous species (Brook et al, 1999(Brook et al, , 2000a. However in our study, following OFY in importance, the SR also played an important role when predicting extinction risk.…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysismentioning

confidence: 54%

“…However in our study, following OFY in importance, the SR also played an important role when predicting extinction risk. Individual-based PVA packages, including Vortex, consider the possibility of a temporarily unequal sex ratio when modeling both sexes (Brook et al, 2000a). For Przewalski's gazelle, a sex ratio imbalance exists in Vortex when the total number of females available for breeding comprise more than 50% of the total population (Jiang, 2004;Lei et al, 2001).…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Metapopulation viability of a globally endangered gazelle on the Northeast Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Jiang

Mallon

2013

Biological Conservation

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Section: Sensitivity Analysiscontrasting

confidence: 41%

Section: Sensitivity Analysismentioning

confidence: 54%

Section: Sensitivity Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Metapopulation viability of a globally endangered gazelle on the Northeast Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Jiang

Mallon

2013

Biological Conservation

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“…Speciesspecific PVA models have been developed for some endangered species (Boyce 1994). However, they are generally time-consuming and expensive (Brook et al 2000a(Brook et al , 2000b. In addition, these are not subject to repeated use, and, therefore, may contain undetected flaws (Brook et al 2000a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Population viability analysis (PVA) using computer simulations has been widely applied in conservation biology to predict the impact of current and future threats to threatened or endangered species (Brook et al 2000a(Brook et al , 2000b. PVAs can be used to assess a species' risk of extinction, providing a powerful tool for setting research priorities (Clark et al 1991).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Considering threats to population viability of the endangered Korean long-tailed goral (Naemorhedus caudatus) using VORTEX

Kim

이배근

Lee

et al. 2016

Animal Cells and Systems

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Population viability analysis (PVA) has frequently been used in conservation biology to predict extinction rates for threatened or endangered species. In this study, we used VORTEX to model Korean long-tailed goral (Naemorhedus caudatus) using previously collected ecological data. We focused on modelling population extinction, mean population size and heterozygosity. The minimum viable population size was found to be at least 50 gorals for 100 years, regardless of carrying capacity. However, populations with fewer than 50 gorals could not remain successful in the model. Inbreeding depression, catastrophes and supplementation also affected patterns of population extinction, mean population size and heterozygosity. Supplementation with new individuals had the strongest effect on extinction, mean population size and heterozygosity, followed by initial population size, inbreeding, catastrophes and carrying capacity. These results suggest that a supplementation by extra goral individuals from goral proliferation facilities would be the most helpful means for the restoration programme. More Korean goral-specific information regarding demographic and habitat parameters is needed for further PVA of the species. ARTICLE HISTORY

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Modelling the effects of variation in growth, recruitment, and harvest on lake sturgeon population viability and recovery

Nelson¹,

McDougall²,

Koops

et al. 2021

Aquatic Conservation

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Regulatory agencies and fisheries managers tasked with implementing recovery plans for endangered species must frequently make decisions based on limited data, while also considering general uncertainty associated with prediction. Population viability analysis (PVA) is a modelling tool that is particularly useful for long‐lived species and can be applied even in the absence of robust estimates of life history parameters. As empirical data are accumulated over time, PVA inputs, model structure, and parameter estimates can be refined to increase model realism and accuracy. Since the first iterations of lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) PVA were run, approximately 15 years ago, based on conservative inputs for Canadian population units, important empirical data have accumulated from a variety of river systems that the species inhabits. Erratic recruitment patterns have been revealed, juvenile survival has been determined to be higher than initially believed, and growth rates have been found to vary by habitat (river) type. Exploiting an improved biological understanding of the species, somatic growth models derived from three well‐studied lake sturgeon populations were used to examine the effects of recruitment variability and incremental levels of adult harvest (mortality) on the probability of population recovery and risk of population decline. A total of 110 PVA scenarios (with 1,000 replicates per scenario) were run for each of the three somatic growth models (slow, medium, and fast). The PVA results suggest that the recovery potential for lake sturgeon populations may be higher than previous models, based on conservative inputs, have indicated. A few scenarios resulted in recovery after 100 years, and nearly half of the scenarios resulted in recovery after 250 years. Similarly, the probability of decline for small populations was most sensitive to adult harvest, with little change in the number of scenarios resulting in decline at the time points of 100, 250, and 500 years. A worked example highlights how the targeted monitoring of both juvenile and adult life stages can be used to evaluate the recovery potential of more than one population and prioritize management initiatives, such as harvest reduction and stocking.

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Differences and Congruencies between PVA Packages: the Importance of Sex Ratio for Predictions of Extinction Risk

Cited by 72 publications

References 22 publications

Metapopulation viability of a globally endangered gazelle on the Northeast Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Metapopulation viability of a globally endangered gazelle on the Northeast Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Considering threats to population viability of the endangered Korean long-tailed goral (Naemorhedus caudatus) using VORTEX

Modelling the effects of variation in growth, recruitment, and harvest on lake sturgeon population viability and recovery

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