Die Deutschen und die Türkeifrage: eine Analyse der Einstellungen zum Antrag der Türkei auf Mitgliedschaft in der Europäischen Union

Abstract

Zusammenfassung: Ziel des Aufsatzes ist es zu untersuchen, wovon die Einstellungen der Deutschen zu einem möglichen Beitritt der Türkei zur EU abhängen. Die Analyse von Umfragedaten aus dem Frühjahr 2005 zeigt, dass sich die Haltung zur Türkeifrage praktisch nicht aus Vertrauen zur Bundesregierung oder aus Performanzurteilen über die EU-Institutionen speist. Eine wichtige Rolle spielen die Offenheit für neue EUMitglieder, vor allem aber Vorstellungen von Europas Grenzen sowie von den Folgen des Beitritts. Ostdeutsche achten vor allem auf kulturelle Grenzen zwischen Europa und der Türkei sowie auf sicherheitspolitische Folgen des Beitritts. Bei Westdeutschen fallen zusätzlich wahrgenommene historische Grenzen sowie erwartete Zuwanderungsströme ins Gewicht. Die Ergebnisse sprechen gegen einen raschen Umschwung der öffentlichen Meinung zugunsten des EU-Beitritts der Türkei.Abstract: In this paper, I examine the sources of support for Turkey's EU-entry in the German public. I propose several models and explore their respective empirical validity using survey data gathered in May and June 2005. The analysis shows that neither trust in the federal government nor evaluations of the EU institutions play a role in attitudes toward Turkey's bid for membership. By contrast, attitudes towards this issue are considerably affected by preferences about EU enlargement and, more strongly, by beliefs about whether Turkey at least partly belongs to Europe. Likewise, when forming attitudes towards Turkey's bid for EU membership, Germans appear to consider the presumed consequences of including Turkey in the EU. Both East and West Germans are particularly likely to take consequences for regional security into account. The paper concludes with a discussion of several implications for German public opinion on this EU issue.

Why not Turkey? Attitudes towards Turkish Membership in the EU among Citizens in 27 European Countries

“…Dieter Fuchs et al (2009) demonstrated that identification with Europe influenced citizens' support for the EU in general and for EU expansion in particular. Harald Schoen (2008) found a similar correlation regarding support for Turkish accession in Germany. Those who identify not only with their own country or region, but also with Europe as a whole, will be amenable to EU expansion, even if that expansion (as in the case of Turkey) is accompanied by significant costs and economic disadvantages for their own country.…”

“…Many studies have shown that economic factors play a significant role in shaping attitudes towards different aspects of European integration (Eichenberg and Dalton, 1993; Gabel, 1998; Gabel and Palmer, 1995; Anderson and Reichert, 1996; Anderson and Kaltenthaler, 1996; Hooghe and Marks, 2005; Berezin and Díez‐Medrano, 2008; Schoen, 2008). McLaren (2007) and De Vreese (2008) show that such considerations also influence attitudes towards Turkey.…”

“…Our study differs from similar studies on this topic in the following dimensions. Whereas De Vreese et al (2008) analysed Dutch attitudes towards Turkey and Schoen (2008) analysed Germany, our study looks at attitudes in all 27 EU Member States. Our study also differs from McLaren (2007) in two respects.…”

“…7 7 Harald Schoen (2008) treated these attitudes of German citizens towards Turkish accession as causal factors. This approach assumes, however, that people are first of the opinion that Turkey must, for example, improve on human rights before acceding, and, on the basis of this opinion, come to the conclusion that Turkey should not be allowed into the EU.…”