Did the 1918 influenza pandemic cause a 1920 baby boom? Demographic evidence from neutral Europe

Gaddy, Hampton Gray; Ingholt, Mathias Mølbak

doi:10.1080/00324728.2023.2192041

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 108 publications

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“…Looking back at past pandemics, we can also confirm the temporary decline in births in Switzerland in mid-1919, around nine months after the most severe phase of the “Spanish flu” in Fall and Winter 1918, as in other countries (Bloom-Feshbach et al, 2011; Pomar et al, 2020). This was followed by an increase in births in 1920, although the effects of the end of the war and the end of the pandemic can hardly be separated, even in countries not directly involved in the war (Gaddy & Ingholt, 2023; S.-E. Mamelund, 2012). We also add to the literature by showing that in Switzerland the “Russian flu” in 1890, the strong “Spanish flu” later wave in 1920 and the “Asian flu” in 1957 also led to a short-term drop in births around nine months after the pan-demic peaks.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most of the evidence on historical pandemics comes from research on the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic (“Spanish flu”), when births declined 9 months after the pandemic peak in Scandinavia (Bloom-Feshbach et al, 2011; Svenn-Erik Mamelund, 2004; Pomar et al, 2020), Britain (Chandra et al, 2018; Chandra & Yu, 2015; Reid, 2005), Japan (Chandra & Yu, 2015), and the United States (Bloom-Feshbach et al, 2011; Chandra et al, 2018). However, some of these aspects are currently being debated in the literature, for example whether the 1918-1920 pandemic or the end of the First World War is more likely to be associated with these changes in birthrates (Gaddy & Ingholt, 2023; S.-E. Mamelund, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The remarkable ups and downs of birth rate in Switzerland 2020 to 2023 in a historical context

Le Vu,

Matthes,

Staub

2023

Preprint

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We follow population trends in the monthly birth rate in Switzerland almost up to the present and place the latest developments in a historical context. Birth rates in 2022 were the lowest since the 1870s, and the trend is continuing in 2023. The latest decline had already begun 1-2 years before Covid-19. Previous pandemics (1890, 1918, 1920, 1957) had led to a temporary decline in births ∽9 months after the epidemic peaks. With Covid-19, this appears more complex. During and shortly after the first two waves and shutdowns in 2020, there were more conceptions and thus excess birth rates in 2021, in all available subgroups except Italian-speaking Switzerland, and somewhat more pronounced among >30-year-old mothers and second parities. Possible reasons for the mini-boom include: The increased time at home during the shutdowns has – planned or not – led to more conceptions which has brought pregnancies forward; the corona virus was still circulat-ing too infrequently in this 1st phase of the pandemic to have a negative impact on pregnancies or fertility; at the end of the waves and shutdowns, the perceived end of the pandemic threat could have led to an optimistic mood and thus also more conceptions. The subsequent decline from January 2022 was stronger than the in-crease before. The first part of the decline in 2022 is most likely due to a negative rebound from the advance-ment of births in 2020/2021 and deliberately postponed pregnancies due to the start of the vaccination pro-gram. The second part of the decline in 2022 is associated with conceptions during the large Omicron wave in the winter of 2021/2022, when many people in Switzerland fell ill. In addition, prices have been rising and real wages falling since 2021, the global political situation has become more unstable, and a general change in values regarding the willingness to have children may also be underway. Following these observations at population level (with limited depth of variables), more in-depth studies must now follow to better under-stand the dynamic ups and downs in the birth rate in Switzerland in recent years.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The remarkable ups and downs of birth rate in Switzerland 2020 to 2023 in a historical context

Le Vu,

Matthes,

Staub

2023

Preprint

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“…Contrary to the popular belief that fertility increases after a disaster, a recently published systematic review reported an overall negative shortterm effect of disasters on fertility [13]. Over the slightly longer term, Mamelund found that fertility increased in Scandinavia, following an initial decrease immediately after the pandemic [14], although this phenomenon has been attributed to the aftermath of the First World War rather than the waning of the pandemic [15]. This study utilizes data from the city of Madras (presently Chennai) in India to determine (i) whether there is a link between pandemic-associated excess deaths and subsequent births and (ii) to evaluate the length of the time lag between changes in excess deaths and future births.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 86%

Birth Patterns in the Aftermath of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in India: The Case of Madras City

Chandra,

Sarkar,

Rynjah

2024

Influenza Resp Viruses

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This paper examines the timing of one‐time fluctuations in births subsequent to the 1918 influenza pandemic in Madras (now Chennai), India. After seasonally decomposing key demographic aggregates, we identified abrupt one‐time fluctuations in excess births, deaths, and infant deaths. We found a contemporaneous spike in excess deaths and infant deaths and a 40‐week lag between the spike in deaths and a subsequent deficit in births. The results suggest that India experienced the same kind of short‐term postpandemic “baby bust” that was observed in the United States and other countries. Identifying the mechanisms underlying this widespread phenomenon remains an open question and an important topic for future research.

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“…Health economists study how fetal shocks cause adverse effects on birth cohorts' health (Almond & Currie, 2011), and they could use survivorship memory models to consider how any number of consecutive fetal shocks persist in populations over time. Demographers may be similarly interested in using memory models to estimate the psychological effects of disasters on fertility (Nobles et al, 2015;Gaddy & Mølbak Ingholt, 2023). By modeling the memory of environmental hazards, researchers could also put quantitative bounds on medical anthropologists' concepts of populations that are constituted by shared exposure to toxic hazards, sometimes called "chemical kin" or "biological citizens" (see Dow & Lamoreaux, 2020).…”

Section: Interdisciplinary Uses Of Demographic Memorymentioning

confidence: 99%

“We are our memory”: Quantifying the demographic imprints of the past

Gaddy¹

2023

Preprint

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Demographic memory is a concept that has been recently articulated by Denton & Spencer (2021) and Alburez-Gutierrez (2022). It refers to the ways in which the past is remembered by contemporary populations because the people who were exposed to the past are still alive, or because the people exposed to the past have living family members. This is a potentially powerful new concept, but at present, it is under-utilized and somewhat under-theorized. This paper works to further clarify and demonstrate the usefulness of the concept. It argues for demographic memory as an idea that is distinct from existing concepts of demographic metabolism and collective memory. It argues for demographic memory as an idea that unifies and makes quantifiable many of the scattered ideas of historical embeddedness that exist in the social and biological sciences, including in economics, epidemiology, political science, and genetics. Finally, it presents a broadly applicable formal model of demographic memory as defined by survivorship and offers an application of that model to the political history of the United Kingdom.

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Did the 1918 influenza pandemic cause a 1920 baby boom? Demographic evidence from neutral Europe

Cited by 5 publications

References 108 publications

The remarkable ups and downs of birth rate in Switzerland 2020 to 2023 in a historical context

The remarkable ups and downs of birth rate in Switzerland 2020 to 2023 in a historical context

Birth Patterns in the Aftermath of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in India: The Case of Madras City

“We are our memory”: Quantifying the demographic imprints of the past

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