Diagnostics of the influence of medical and demographic indicators on regional socio-economic systems

Abstract

The article presents approaches to monitoring and assessing social aspects of regional systems with identification of elements of the health system and demographic components that potentially affect the economic efficiency of functioning of territories. The relevance of the article is determined by objective features of the development of mesoterritories. The analysis of spatial features of the systems’ functioning was conducted on the materials of the Central Federal District. The purpose of the study is to assess the features of the regional genesis using regression analysis and the resulting indicator – gross regional product (hereinafter referred to as GRP), which allows us to give a more reliable characterisation of the mesoterritorial transformation. The subjects were grouped according to the quality of medical and demographic characteristics on the basis of the cluster analysis with further allocation of flagship, catching-up and lagging regions. To substantiate the reliability of the territories’ affiliation to a specific cluster group, a statistical analysis was performed on average values with consideration to identification of the level of medical and demographic development. The conclusion is made about the influence of some factor criteria on the regional space with the construction of a scatter plot. It displays the affiliation to the selected confidence interval and distribution of the elements of the set in the plane between the resulting and factor values, describing the dependence of the GRP on the medical and demographic indicator. These econometric and analytical models can be used by regional governments in the process of strategic planning.