Devising a method for the estimation and prediction of technical condition of ship complex systems

Abstract

In order to reduce emergencies and damages to equipment, it is relevant to devise new methods for the estimations of risk and prediction of the technical condition of ship CTS. 2. Literature review and problem statement From the point of view of technical safety, quantitative assessments of the risk of CTS failures are a necessary and complex problem, which requires development and application of special mathematical apparatus. As follows from [6], the solution of applied problems of such type is frequently based on the methods of mathematical and statistical modeling, the method of analysis "tree of failures", etc. At present, among the methods for modeling the reliability, there is an advanced technology of the automated structural-logical simulation and calculation of reliability, safety of complex systems objects and processes, effectiveness and risk in the functioning of systems [7]. Reliability of ship CTS depends on a large number of factors, which characterize their design, conditions of production and operation. This leads to the fact that the 4

Intelligent decision support system for assessing the risk of failures of complex technical systems

“…To assess the reliability of complex technical systems (CTS), various methods based on the methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics have been developed and applied, which makes it possible to automate the process of assessing the reliability of elements and components of systems [1][2][3][4].…”

Intellectualization Method and Model of Complex Technical System's Failures Risk Estimation and Prediction

“…This leads to the need to repair CTS equipment, which means to ship downtime, so probably losses associated with the time spent on repairs and the resources used might be increased significantly. The use of intelligent systems for assessing and predicting the technical condition (TC) of complex systems can significantly extend the life cycle of CTS, including ships [1]. Estimation, prediction of the risk of CTS failures involves the development of methods and technologies of artificial intelligence in order to identify and prevent possible failures in the operation of CTS [2].…”

“…In design, manufacture and operation, the reliability of CTS is ensured by methods and means specific to each stage of the systems "life cycle". Reliability of ship CTS is estimated based on the results of FE and FI TC diagnosing and can be assessed in the failures risk form [5,6,7].…”

Optimization of precidtion methods, processing and analysis of information in different structure data

“…Надежное функционирование современных, например, судовых сложных технических систем (СТС) [1][2][3][4] часто основывается на использовании удаленных программных решений по прогнозированию их работоспособности [5,6].…”