Developments in Ground Motion Predictive Models and Accelerometric Data Archiving in the Broader European Region

Abstract

This paper summarizes the evolution of major strong-motion databases and ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for shallow active crustal regions (SACRs) in Europe and surrounding regions. It concludes with some case studies to show the sensitivity of hazard results at different seismicity levels and exceedance rates for local (developed from country-specific databases) and global (based on databases of multiple countries) GMPEs of the same region. The case studies are enriched by considering other global GMPEs of SACRs that are recently developed in the USA. The hazard estimates computed from local and global GMPEs from the broader Europe as well as those obtained from global GMPEs developed in the US differ. These differences are generally significant and their variation depends on the annual exceedance rate and seismicity. Current efforts to improve the accelerometric data archives in the broader Europe as well as more refined GMPEs that will be developed from these databases would help the researchers to understand the above mentioned differences in seismic hazard.

Seismic hazard map of the Middle East

“…Hellenic Subduction Arc, Cyprian Arc, Makran, Iran). Inherent uncertainties of quality and accuracy of earthquake sources and ground shaking data (Akkar et al 2014) were incorporated by modelling alternative seismogenic source models (Danciu et al 2017). Data driven techniques combined with sensitivity analyses were used when building the reference ground motion model (Danciu et al 2016).…”