Development of the statistical ARIMA model: an application for predicting the upcoming of MJO index

Hermawan, Eddy; Ruchjana, Budi Nurani; Abdullah, Atje Setiawan; Jaya, I Gede Nyoman Mindra; Sipayung, Sinta Berliana; Rustiana, Shailla

doi:10.1088/1742-6596/893/1/012019

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 4 publications

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“…5, there is a strong focus on flood modeling and mapping, representing almost one-third of all papers published since the year 2000. Flood models (Bahtiar et al, 2018;Farid et al, 2012;Formánek et al, 2013; and Santoso, 2019.; Hurford et al, 2010;Mishra et al, 2018;Ogie et al, 2016a;Remondi et al, 2016;Rojali et al, 2017;Takagi et al, 2016b;) and non-model-based flood analyses (Asmadin et al, 2018;Priambodo et al, 2018;Syafalni et al, 2015;Supomo et al, 2017), rainfall and/or runoff (Aditya et al, 2017;Anggraheni et al, 2018;Anindita et al, 2016;Farid et al, 2011;Hermawan et al, 2017;Kurniawan, 2019;Moe et al, 2017;Otsuka et al, 2017;Rafiei Emam et al, 2016;Riyando Moe et al, 2017) and non-modeled rainfall/runoff analyses Nuryanto et al, 2017;Wu et al, 2013), and models and analyses of land subsidence (Agustan et al, 2013;Andreas et al, 2019Andreas et al, , 2018Koudogbo et al, 2012;Park et al, 2016) all aim to better understand and simulate the physical factors that cause or influence flooding issues and measuring its impacts in Jakarta. The same holds true for flood damage or estimated loss models (Budiyono et al, 2015(Budiyono et al, , 2016Kurniyaningrum et al, 2019;Marko et al, 2019;Wahab and Tiong, 2017;…”

Section: Understanding the Drivers Of The Flood Hazardmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping the adaptation solution space – lessons from Jakarta for other coastal cities

Wannewitz

Garschagen

2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Coastal cities are under increasing pressure to adapt to climate change. They suffer from the severe effects of increased frequencies and intensities of coastal hazards, particularly flooding, whilst oftentimes continuing to sprawl into hazard exposed areas and grow beyond the pace of sufficient infrastructure development. Even though these problems have been quite well understood for a while, there is still comparatively little knowledge on the solution space, i.e. on the options available for adaptation and the ways in which they are being perceived, framed and evaluated. Focusing on Jakarta as one of the cities with the highest flood risk and adaptation pressure globally, this study presents findings from a systematic review of scientific English literature on mitigation options and the adaptation solution space to counter the city’s chronic flood problem. Results indicate that the perceived solution space is skewed towards protection against flooding, while soft adaptation options as well as measures to live with flooding or retreat from exposed areas are less widely considered. This appears to not only stem from the government’s traditional preference for engineered flood protection measures but also from a bias of scientific analyses towards focusing on understanding the hazard and analyzing engineered flood protection measures, while giving much less attention to soft adaptation options and community-led adaptation focusing among others on social and natural capital, empowerment and capacity building. Similarly, hybrid adaptation approaches, which combine soft and hard measures in a complementary way, are only rarely considered. Looking into the future, the findings suggest that a more integrative scientific approach would be helpful to populate and balance the considered solution space. Jakarta is one of the most heavily researched coastal cities worldwide and lessons from Jakarta are hence of global reach and importance. Future science on the city can play a significant role in piloting new approaches on the pressing frontiers in adaptation research. But increased attention is needed on current epistemic gaps.

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Section: Understanding the Drivers Of The Flood Hazardmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping the adaptation solution space – lessons from Jakarta for other coastal cities

Wannewitz

Garschagen

2020

Preprint

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Review article: Mapping the adaptation solution space – lessons from Jakarta

Wannewitz

Garschagen

2021

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Coastal cities are under rising pressure to adapt to climate change. They suffer from the severe effects of increased frequencies and intensities of coastal hazards, particularly flooding, while oftentimes continuing to sprawl into hazard-exposed areas and grow beyond the pace of sufficient infrastructure development. Even though these problems have been quite well understood for a while, there is still comparatively little knowledge and scientific assessment of the solution space, i.e., on the options available for adaptation and the ways in which they are being perceived, framed and evaluated in the scientific literature. Focusing on Jakarta, this study presents findings from a systematic assessment of peer-reviewed scientific literature on the adaptation solution space with regard to current and future flooding. Jakarta is chosen as a case study since it is among the cities with the highest flood risk and adaptation pressure globally while also being one of the most heavily researched coastal cities in this regard, certainly in the Global South. Based on a structured keyword search, we assess 339 articles. Results indicate that the perceived solution space is skewed towards hard protection against flooding, while measures to accommodate flooding or retreat from exposed areas are less widely considered in the scientific debate. Soft adaptation measures for the reduction of social vulnerability receive less attention in the literature than those measures targeting the taming of flood hazards, often through engineering solutions. Likewise, hybrid adaptation approaches, which combine soft and hard measures in a complementary way, are only rarely considered. Looking into the future, the findings suggest that despite the importance of hard flood protection as a main adaptation solution in Jakarta, other fields of the solution space deserve increased scientific attention. This relates in particular to urgently needed feasibility and effectiveness assessments of ecosystems-based solutions for flood mitigation and adaptation options targeting social vulnerability. While the empirical results are specific to Jakarta, heuristic observations from research on other coastal cities suggest that similar scoping exercises of the predominantly perceived solution space might be of relevance in many cities beyond Jakarta.

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Development of the statistical ARIMA model: an application for predicting the upcoming of MJO index

Cited by 2 publications

References 4 publications

Mapping the adaptation solution space – lessons from Jakarta for other coastal cities

Mapping the adaptation solution space – lessons from Jakarta for other coastal cities

Review article: Mapping the adaptation solution space – lessons from Jakarta

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