Development of Survivability Analysis Program for Atmospheric Reentry

Abstract

A survivability-analysis program has been developed to analyze the ground collision risk of atmospheric reentry objects, such the upper stages of a launch vehicle or satellites, which move at or near the orbital velocity. The aero-thermodynamic load during the free fall, the temperature variation due to thermal load, and the phase shift after reaching the melting point are integrated into the 3 degree-of-freedom trajectory simulation of the reentry objects to analyze the size and weight of its debris impacting the ground. The analysis results of the present method for simple-shaped objects are compared with the data predicted by similar codes developed by NASA and ESA. Also, the analysis for actual reentry orbital objects has been performed, of which results are compared with the measurement data.