Development of Scenarios for a Multi-Model System Analysis Based on the Example of a Cellular Energy System

Abstract

Scenario analysis combined with system and market modelling is a well-established method to evaluate technological and societal developments and their impacts on future energy pathways. This paper presents a process-oriented method for developing consistent energy scenarios using multiple energy system models. Its added value is that the developed energy scenarios are consistent in a multi-model environment and practicable for a broader target group from scientists to practitioners. The scenarios consist of comprehensive storylines and systematically defined quantitative parameters. Following a step-by-step process, a condensed set of overlapping descriptors is generated and used to define the scenarios in a consistent parameter matrix. The set of descriptors allow consistent and comparable outputs independent of model-specific characteristics. The corresponding quantitative parameters can be used by diverse energy system tools. Using multiple models, a team of researchers can explore questions from differing points of view. In an example study, we apply the method to develop scenarios in the context of a cellular energy system. This approach enables the development of scenarios that provide a consistent basis for both stakeholder discourse and multi-model system analysis.

Model-Based Evaluation of Decentralised Electricity Markets at Different Phases of the German Energy Transition

“…For example, parts of the renewable energy production from wind offshore was shifted to photovoltaic plants. A detailed description of the procedure can be found in Kühnbach et al (2020). The scenario Reference B described in this paper was used for the present analysis.…”

“…The following table shows the capacities installed for Germany in transformation levels A and B. The data is mainly based on Klimaschutzszenario 95 from Repenning et al (2015), including an adjustment towards a stronger decentralised generation as described in Kühnbach et al (2020).…”

“…1,000 full load hours). Other RES-E 0.6 1.9 Source: Repenning et al (2015); Kühnbach et al (2020) Table 4 shows the values used for the different flexibility options in Germany for transformation levels A and B. The data for battery storage, pumped hydro storage and demand response is based on Rippel et al (2019), while the values for electrolysers, electro mobility and power-to-heat are taken from Repenning et al (2015).…”

How Would Structural Change in Electricity and Hydrogen End Use Impact Low-Carbon Transition of an Energy System? A Case Study of China

“…Mi et al [10] proposed the input-output optimization model IMEC, set two scenarios according to the different years of the peak, and pointed out the impact of the earlier peak on China's economic growth. Matthias et al [11] proposed a qualitative and quantitative method for scenario setting through the calculation of multiple models and analyzed two scenarios focused on different technologies. Franziska et al [12] set six socio-economic qualitative scenarios, qualitatively analyzed Germany's natural gas investment, pointed out the limitations of traditional methods, and pointed out that developing economic scenarios would help improve economic policy assessment.…”