Development of Prediction Model for Storm Surge Hazards in the Developing Countries

Abstract

Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world with around 718000 deaths in the past fifty years. This country is especially in danger for cyclones because of its locations at the triangular-shaped Bay of Bengal. The scientific scenario suggests that enlarged sea surface temperature will intensify cyclone movement. Tropical cyclone generates storm surge. Storm surges severely change the coastal environment, damage coastal structures, destroy forests, crops, inundate the coastline with saltwater and loss of lives. Due to overcrowding in the mainland in Bangladesh, poor and landless people live in the coast and they face frequent cyclones and associated surges. They affect to have food and drinking water; in danger the transmission risks of infectious diseases, such as diarrhoea, malaria, eye infections, skin diseases, etc. Some problems following a cyclone usually create for their low literacy rate and poor knowledge of the environment. The tangible monitoring and warning of the cyclones and associated surges should be given more priority for the region. The main objectives of this paper are to highlight the existing activities as the model in storm surges and related areas in the Bay of Bengal. We would explain the progress of a location-specific real-time standpoint prediction system for providing effective and timely surge forecasts. We would also introduce a model through numerical experiments with severe cyclone April 1991 to predict the storm surges that would be used to reduce economic losses and the number of death tolls during a strong storm surge in the coastal area of Bangladesh.