Development of North American Emission Inventories for Air Quality Modeling under Climate Change

Abstract

An assessment of how future climate change will impact regional air quality requires projecting emissions many decades into the future in a consistent manner. An approach that integrates the impact of both the current regulations and the longer-term national and global trends is developed to construct an emissions inventory (EI) for North America for the mid-century in support of a regional modeling study of ozone and particulate matter (PM) less than or equal to 2.5 microm (PM2.5). Because the time horizon of such a distant projection is beyond that of EIs used in typical modeling studies, it is necessary to identify a practical approach that allows the emission projections to account for emission controls and climatic and energy-use changes. However, a technical challenge arises because this requires integration of various different types of information with which emissions from human activities are associated. Often, emission information in global models has less detail and uses coarser spatiotemporal resolution. The method developed here is based on data availability, spatiotemporal coverage and resolution, and future-scenario consistency (i.e., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [IPCC SRES] A1B), and consists of two major steps: (1) near-future EI projection (to the year 2020), and (2) longer-term EI projection (to mid-century). The first step is based closely on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Clean Air Interstate Rule EI, the Environment Canada EI, as well estimates of Mexico's EI; whereas the second step follows approaches proposed by the EI from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE), developed by Netherlands's National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). For the United States, the year-2050 emissions for nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), PM2.5, anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and ammonia are projected to change by -55, -55, -30, -40, and +20%, respectively, compared with 2001. NOx and SO2 emission changes are very similar in total amount but different in sectoral contribution. The projected emission trends for Canada and Mexico differ considerably. After taking into account the modeled climate changes, biogenic VOC emission increases from three countries overwhelm the decreases in anthropogenic VOC emissions, leading to a net small increase (approximately 2%) in overall VOC emissions.

OH reactivity in urban and suburban regions in Seoul, South Korea – an East Asian megacity in a rapid transition

“…43 In the U.S., several studies integrating satellite NO X datasets, ground observational networks, and regional photochemical models to assess NO X emission changes in early 2000 concluded that NO X emissions have been substantially decreased. 44,45 We can speculate this similar trend may be observable in Japan and Korea in the foreseeable future. In Fig.…”

Current and Future Linked Responses of Ozone and PM2.5 to Emission Controls

“…GISS results utilized are for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario, which is generally viewed as a midrange case that assumes a future world of rapid economic growth with a balance between fossil and nonfossil energy sources (10). Planned controls, e.g., the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) and others in the United States (11) as well as emission changes in Canada and Mexico (12) (12). Anthropogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions are predicted to decrease about 38%, though total VOC emissions are projected to increase by about 2% as biogenic VOC emissions increase (SI Table S1).…”

“…Anthropogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions are predicted to decrease about 38%, though total VOC emissions are projected to increase by about 2% as biogenic VOC emissions increase (SI Table S1). Ammonia (NH3) emissions are predicted to increase by 7% due to growth in human activities (6,12).…”

ESP v1.0: methodology for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States

“…The GCAQA is implementing a scenario-based approach to emissions development (Schwartz, 1996), in contrast to approaches in which a single, best guess emission projection is developed (e.g., Woo et al, 2008). The mechanism by which the GCAQA scenarios are translated into future emissions is a critical component of the integrated framework.…”