Development of Monsoonal Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Relationship and Empirical Model for Data-Scarce Situations: The Case of the Central-Western Hills (Panchase Region) of Nepal

Devkota, Sanjaya; Shakya, Narendra Man; Sudmeier-Rieux, Karen; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Westen, C.J. van; McAdoo, Brian G.; Adhikari, Anu

doi:10.3390/hydrology5020027

Cited by 10 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…Studies have demonstrated that roads are one of the 658 K. Sudmeier-Rieux et al: Invited perspectives: Mountain roads in Nepal at a new crossroads greatest anthropogenic drivers of environmental degradation, erosion and landslides in Nepal (Petley et al, 2007;Froude and Petley, 2018;Vuilliez et al, 2018). This situation is worsening due to the intensifying rainfall during the monsoon, largely attributed to climate change (Petley et al, 2007;Bharti et al, 2016;Devkota et al, 2018;Froude and Petley, 2018), which has led to a greater occurrence of landslides, especially in the middle hills (McAdoo et al, 2018). The possibility of an earthquake of even greater magnitude than the 2015 Gorkha earthquake (M 7.8) raises concerns about poorly designed roads increasing the likelihood of catastrophic landslides (Singh, 2018).…”

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Invited perspectives: Mountain roads in Nepal at a new crossroads

Sudmeier-Rieux

McAdoo

Devkota

et al. 2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In Nepal and many developing countries around the world, roads are vehicles for development for communities in rural areas. By reducing travel time on foot, opportunities are opened for quicker transportation of goods and better access to employment, education, health care and markets. Roads also fuel migration and numerous social changes, both positive and negative. Poorly constructed roads in mountainous areas of Nepal have increased erosion and landslide risk as they often cut through fragile geology, destabilizing slopes and altering local hydrological conditions, with costs to lives and livelihoods. The convergence of the newly constituted decentralized Nepali government with China's Belt and Road Initiative is likely to bring more roads to rural communities. The new provincial government administrations now have the opportunity to develop policies and practices, which can realign the current trend of poorly engineered, inefficient and hazardous road construction toward a more sustainable trajectory. This commentary provides an overview of some of the obstacles along the way for a more sustainable road network in Nepal and illustrates how good governance, development and landslide risk are intertwined. The opinion presented in this brief commentary lends little hope that Nepal's current pathway of unsustainable road construction will provide the country with the much-needed sustainable road network, unless checks and balances are put in place to curb noncompliance with existing laws and policies.

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confidence: 99%

Invited perspectives: Mountain roads in Nepal at a new crossroads

Sudmeier-Rieux

McAdoo

Devkota

et al. 2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…To facilitate planning, design and operation of various water management projects against weather events (such as floods, drought) and/or to reduce human and economic losses, there is need to understand the hydrological extremes and their frequency at selected temporal scales [83,84]. This can be through extreme value analysis on the hydrological time series for different aggregation levels, which generates Amplitude-Duration-Frequency (ADF) relationships.…”

Section: Amplitude-duration Frequency Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance of rainfall–runoff models in reproducing hydrological extremes: a case of the River Malaba sub-catchment

2021

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Daily River Malaba flows recorded from 1999 to 2016 were modelled using seven lumped conceptual rainfall–runoff models including AWBM, SACRAMENTO, TANK, IHACRES, SIMHYD, SMAR and HMSV. Optimal parameters of each model were obtained using an automatic calibration strategy. Mismatches between observed and modelled flows were assessed using a total of nine “goodness-of-fit” metrics. Capacity of the models to reproduce historical hydrological extremes was assessed through comparison of amplitude–duration–frequency (ADF) relationships or curves constructed based on observed and modelled flow quantiles. Generally, most of the hydrological models performed better for high than low flows. ADF curves of both high and low flows for various return periods from 5 to 100 years were well reproduced by AWBM, SAC, TANK and HMSV. ADF curves for high and low flows were poorly reproduced by SIMHYD and SMAR, respectively. Overall, AWBM performed slightly better than other models if both high and low flows are to be considered simultaneously. The deviations of these models were larger for high than low return periods. It was found that the choice of a “goodness-of-fit” metric affects how model performance can be judged. Results from this study also show that when focusing on hydrological extremes, uncertainty due to the choice of a particular model should be taken into consideration. Insights from this study provide relevant information for planning of risk-based water resources applications.

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“…The LSM was verified adopting a receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve [52,53] utilizing the inventory maps. The research followed a pragmatic approach based on a regional rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) model, published by Devkota et al (2018) [54], and the soil depth to bed rock (SDTB) [55] of the Phewa Lake watershed. The saturation depth of the soil profile at watershed scale was estimated adopting the Green-Ampt (GA) model according to Dingman (2002) [56], while soil physical and hydrological properties were derived either in the field or in the laboratory.…”

Section: Research Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The NbS technique implemented in this research was a hybrid type of eco-engineering, encompassing simple civil engineering structures and the plantation of perennial grass species. Civil structural measures such as roadside and surface drainage were designed considering rainfall intensity [54], while civil and geo-technical engineering approaches were adopted for the toe and retaining wall construction. Plantation designs followed Howell (1999b) [59] in diagonal rows, and clusters were maintained for each species.…”

Section: Selection Design and Implementation Of Nbs Techniquesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Framework for Assessment of Eco-Safe Rural Roads in Panchase Geographic Region in Central–Western Nepal Hills

2019

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Rural roads are important for the communities in the hilly areas of Nepal as they introduce livelihood opportunities at the local level, and provide better access to the healthcare, education, and resources. Yet, most of the rural roads in Nepal are unplanned and non-engineered, and these roads are often closed for many months during and after the monsoon. Such roads require huge investments, especially post-monsoon, to clear debris and to keep them operational. In parallel, there is evidence that such roads lead to a large number of slope failures and accelerated sedimentation, which degrade the environment and ecosystem services. To remedy such roadside slope failures, eco-engineering practices were tested and demonstrated in partnership with three communities in the Panchase Region of the Nepal’s Central–Western hills. Eco-engineering is a hybrid approach, combining civil engineering works for drainage and slope stability, with the plantation of deep-rooted vegetation. It is one activity contributing to nature-based solutions (NbS) for the sustainable and long-term operation of the rural roads in the Panchase geographic region. This paper describes the inter-disciplinary and community-based research, monitoring, and evaluation methods applied, including the establishment of onsite demonstration plots and rhizotrons in which key performance indicator (KPI) analysis of plant species was performed. The results demonstrated the effectiveness of eco-engineering for reducing risk, while creating ecological co-benefits along rural roads (or eco-safe roads) in hilly areas. Based on this research, an “eco-safe rural road assessment framework” was developed, outlining the systematic process to be followed for the design of eco-safe rural roads for more sustainable road construction and maintenance. The eco-engineering practices which are being promoted by this framework were accepted by communities and could be further implemented by local government bodies and upscaled in other similar hilly areas around the country.

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Development of Monsoonal Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Relationship and Empirical Model for Data-Scarce Situations: The Case of the Central-Western Hills (Panchase Region) of Nepal

Cited by 10 publications

References 71 publications

Invited perspectives: Mountain roads in Nepal at a new crossroads

Invited perspectives: Mountain roads in Nepal at a new crossroads

Performance of rainfall–runoff models in reproducing hydrological extremes: a case of the River Malaba sub-catchment

Framework for Assessment of Eco-Safe Rural Roads in Panchase Geographic Region in Central–Western Nepal Hills

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