Development of methodological support for improving the quality of expert assessment of business processes

Abstract

The object of research is the process of forming a collective expert assessment with increased reliability in making management decisions in business structures by an expanded team of experts. One of the most problematic places in the expert assessment of management decisions is the complexity of forming a competent expert team and the rather high cost of the expertise. In recent years, there has been a tendency for expert assessment with an expanded team of experts. In this case, not only professional experts are involved in the examination, but also all persons wishing to take part in solving the problem. In this case, the reliability of the examination raises doubts. In connection with the participation in expert assessment of persons who do not have experience in expert work, a wide range of expert assessments is possible. The analysis of the current state of the methods of expert assessment in business is carried out. It has been established that the Delphi method, which was most used until recently, does not meet modern requirements. More progressive methods are based on mathematical consensus theory. Consensus is understood as the degree of correlation of individual expert assessments performed in rank scales. In the course of the study, formalized mathematical approaches to the organization of collective expertise were used. A method for processing the results of an examination with an expanded composition of experts was developed. The developed methodology is focused on identifying experts with insufficient qualifications. The methodology allows for a step-by-step assessment of the reliability of the collective expert decision by assessing the Kendall concordance coefficient. It is shown that the phased exclusion of assessments by experts with insufficient qualifications allows increasing the level of consensus, the quality and reliability of the collective expert assessment. The developed methodology has been tested in a really functioning enterprise to make a decision on the exit strategy of the enterprise from their crisis. The use of the developed methodology has made it possible to significantly increase the reliability of the examination results, assessed by the concordance coefficient. The results are useful for practical application in business structures when conducting expert examinations involving a wide range of participants.