Development of an Integrated Biophysical Model to represent morphological and ecological processes in a changing deltaic and coastal ecosystem

Baustian, Melissa M.; Meselhe, E. A.; Jung, Hoonshin; Sadid, K. M.; Duke‐Sylvester, Scott M.; Visser, Jenneke M.; Moss, Leland C.; Ramatchandirane, Cyndhia; Maren, D.S. van; Jeuken, M.; Bargu, Sibel

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.05.019

Cited by 44 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…The second model used to test the effectiveness of the proposed nature-based solutions was the Integrated Biophysical Model (IBM), a project-level Delft3D model that has small grid cells and a slow computing time, referred to by the group as the "slow model" (Baustian et al 2018;Meselhe et al 2015). The IBM couples hydrodynamics, nutrient dynamics, vegetation dynamics, and morphodynamics to model changes to wetland vegetation and estuarine open water (Baustian et al 2018). Additionally, scenarios that included future environmental conditions (sea level rise and subsidence) and the impacts of hurricane-force winds, water levels, and drought conditions were run with the IBM.…”

Section: Figmentioning

confidence: 99%

Elevating local knowledge through participatory modeling: active community engagement in restoration planning in coastal Louisiana

et al. 2019

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Numerical modeling efforts in support of restoration and protection activities in coastal Louisiana have traditionally been conducted externally to any stakeholder engagement processes. This separation has resulted in planning-and project-level models built solely on technical observation and analysis of natural processes. Despite its scientific rigor, this process often fails to account for the knowledge, values, and experiences of local stakeholders that often contextualizes a modeled system. To bridge this gap, a team of natural and social scientists worked directly with local residents and resource users to develop a participatory modeling approach to collect and utilize local knowledge about the Breton Sound Estuary in southeast Louisiana, USA. Knowledge capture was facilitated through application of a local knowledge mapping methodology designed to catalog local understanding of current and historical conditions within the estuary and identify desired ecological and hydrologic end states. The results of the mapping endeavor informed modeling activities designed to assess the applicability of the identified restoration solutions. This effort was aimed at increasing stakeholder buy-in surrounding the utility of numerical models for planning and designing coastal protection and restoration projects and included an ancillary outcome aimed at elevating stakeholder empowerment regarding the design of nature-based restoration solutions and modeling scenarios. This intersection of traditional science and modeling activities with the collection and analysis of traditional ecological knowledge proved useful in elevating the confidence that community members had in modeled restoration outcomes.

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Section: Figmentioning

confidence: 99%

Elevating local knowledge through participatory modeling: active community engagement in restoration planning in coastal Louisiana

et al. 2019

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“…The applied Mississippi River hydrograph is depicted in both Figure 7-1 and Figure 7-2. This hydrograph is an idealized hydrograph, generated for this study (Sadid et al 2018). It is an idealized typical hydrograph, resulting from a statistical synthesis of the observed Mississippi River hydrograph at Tarbert Landing.…”

Section: Mississippi River Inflow Hydrographmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mississippi River Hydrodynamic and Delta Management Study : Delta Management modeling : AdH/SEDLIB multi-dimensional model validation and scenario analysis report

Brown¹,

McAlpin²,

Pevey³

et al. 2019

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This report details the process of developing and validating a multidimensional hydrodynamic, salinity, sediment transport, and coastal wetland morphology model of the Lower Mississippi River Delta. This model has been developed to run various sediment diversion scenarios. The results of these scenario analyses are documented in this report.The morphologic modeling results for the diversion scenario analyses show net land gain in the near vicinity of the diversion outlets and net land loss farther away from the outlets. The areas of land gain roughly correspond with the zones of sand deposition whereas the areas of largest land loss correspond with areas where there is diversion-induced inundation but not significant deposition of sediment from the diversion. The modeling results indicate that diversion-induced inundation results in a reduction in plant productivity, which induces an acceleration of land loss.Significant uncertainty exists with respect to the response of the existing wetland vegetation to diversion-induced inundation. The magnitude of this uncertainty can only be narrowed with further consensus building within wetland science.With respect to salinity, the receiving waters tend to freshen significantly during diversion operations. However, when operations cease, the recovery of salinity is almost entirely determined by prevailing offshore and/or riverine conditions.

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“…The Baustian et al () model is dependent on an “expert assessment” for 9 of 14 validations for model components (http://coastal.la.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Attachment-C3-1_FINAL_02.22.2017.pdf; Table 3), implying that these are partly subjective conclusions that will be less definitive than the equations calculating hydrologic flow and sediment transport. Neither model includes a quantified consideration of the 30% decline in root strength (Hollis & Turner ) or soil strength (Turner ) after small increases in nutrient availability, which Baustian et al (, p 415) suggest is a concern. The interactive effect of hurricanes and diversions is not included, and land gain or loss in wetland soils beyond the initial outfall area are not used to calibrate either model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Net land gain or loss for two Mississippi River diversions: Caernarvon and Davis Pond

Turner

Layne

et al. 2019

Restoration Ecology

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Coastal wetland restoration can be complex and expensive, so knowing long‐term consequences makes it important to inform decisions about if, when, and where to conduct restoration. We determined temporal changes in land gain and loss in receiving basins and adjacent reference areas for two diversions of the Mississippi River in south Louisiana (Davis Pond and Caernarvon initiated in 1991 and 2002, respectively). Water from both diversions went into receiving basins with vegetated areas as did the adjoining reference areas. The results from two different types of satellite imagery analyses demonstrate a net land loss after diversions began. The results were confirmed for the Caernarvon diversion using a before–after/control–impact analysis of independently collected data over a larger area of the estuary. These results are consistent with an analysis of land gain and loss after a natural levee break on the Mississippi River in 1973. The positive influences of adding new sediments were apparently counter‐balanced by other factors, and consistent with the conclusion from other studies indicating that increased nutrient supply and flooding are, by themselves, negative influences on marsh health. Modeling the ecosystem effects of diversions can be calibrated and tested using landscape‐scale analyses like this to understand the chronic and delayed effects, including the unintended consequences. Basing the legitimacy of river diversion on ecosystem modeling will be premature without successfully reproducing empirical results like these in ecosystem models.

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Development of an Integrated Biophysical Model to represent morphological and ecological processes in a changing deltaic and coastal ecosystem

Cited by 44 publications

References 78 publications

Elevating local knowledge through participatory modeling: active community engagement in restoration planning in coastal Louisiana

Elevating local knowledge through participatory modeling: active community engagement in restoration planning in coastal Louisiana

Mississippi River Hydrodynamic and Delta Management Study : Delta Management modeling : AdH/SEDLIB multi-dimensional model validation and scenario analysis report

Net land gain or loss for two Mississippi River diversions: Caernarvon and Davis Pond

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