Development of an expert‐led <scp>GIS</scp>‐based approach for assessing the performance of river levees: the <scp><i>D</i></scp><i>igsure</i> method and tool

Peyras, Laurent; Tourment, Rémy; Vuillet, Marc; Beullac, Bruno; Delaunay, C.; Bambara, G.

doi:10.1111/jfr3.12178

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…The proposed three different assessment methods are based on combining data, expert judgments, index based methods and empirical (physical and mathematical) models. Peyras [40], in contrast, develop methods that can assist levee safety using geographic information system (GIS). Levee safety is closely linked to levee technical condition, which is evaluated using numerous publications in the form of handbooks or guidelines (e.g.…”

Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of factors influencing levee safety using the DEMATEL method

et al. 2021

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River embankments are the basic and the oldest measures of protecting areas potentially subjected to flooding, and at the same time pose a serious threat to their environment in the event of damage or failure. The technical condition of the levees and its regular evaluation is a key element of their safety. A general assessment of the technical condition of a levee is the result of many interacting factors and parameters that depend on each other to a varying degree. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the cause-and-effect links between the interrelationships of numerous parameters and sensors of significant impact. In this article the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method was applied to develop a cause-and-effect model for factors impacting the condition and safety of levees. Effective factors impacting the technical condition of a levee were identified; relationships between these factors were determined; a cause-and-effect model was developed based on identified factors; factors were categorized based on the dependence scale and influential indicators of each factors used in the DEMATEL method. The obtained results demonstrate that three following factors: hydrological factor, type and condition of soils in levee body and condition of levee areas (inter-levee and landside) play the most important role for levee safety. The results of this study can support traditional assessments of hydrotechnical structure or assist entities managing levees.

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Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of factors influencing levee safety using the DEMATEL method

et al. 2021

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“…Progressive refinement of risk estimation and subsequent improvement of dike system management can be achieved by assessing existing knowledge gaps in order to better understand the impact of uncertainties within the risk analysis process. Recent research (e.g., Vuillet et al, 2016;Peyras et al, 2015;Gelder et al, 2008) has suggested different methods to deal with the uncertainty in the structural performance of dikes, e.g., subjective probabilities were used to characterise the uncertainty of input data, and Monte Carlo simulations were used to propagate the parameter uncertainty in dike failure scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood risk assessment of the City of Calgary considering flood control barrier performance

Cocaign¹,

Picton²,

Khan³

et al. 2021

Science and Practice for an Uncertain Future

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The 2013 flood in southern Alberta was one of the worst natural disasters in Canadian history. Heavy rainfall and a melting snowpack in the upstream Rocky Mountains resulted in higher-than-normal runoff in several Alberta watersheds. As the runoff reached downstream to the City of Calgary, the Bow and Elbow rivers overtopped its banks (including at several flood control barriers along the Rivers), causing several deaths, large-scale evacuations and an estimated $6 billion in damages. Responding to this unprecedented flood event, the City of Calgary has implemented a Flood Resilience Plan to help reduce future flood risk. A key component of this plan is to analyze and improve existing flood control barriers (i.e., dike systems) along the rivers to improve performance and reduce the risk of riverine floods in the future. In this research, a probabilistic risk assessment process is developed and applied to assess the overall flood risk on existing dike systems along the Bow River in the City of Calgary. A steady-state hydraulic model of the Bow River is used to determine the water levels along the River for different return periods. The risk of failure of the dike systems (due to slope instability) is quantified using the Morgenstern-Price method and a Monte Carlo scheme that incorporates the uncertainty in the geotechnical properties of each barrier segment. The flood hazard is then quantified for each barrier segment considering each return period, risk of failure of the barrier, or overtopping due to high water levels. Following this, a multi-criteria approach that integrates the flood hazard with flood exposure and vulnerability is implemented to generate the overall flood risk map of the areas protected by the dike systems. The exposure (economic) and vulnerability (socio-demographic) are determined using geospatial data and an analytical hierarchical process. This process propagates the uncertainty from the data to the final probabilistic risk estimates. Results demonstrate the significance of including slope instability calculations when determining overall flood hazard. While dike systems may be designed to protect for a given return period (e.g. 100-year water level), there is a significant risk of failure of the barriers before reaching the designed water level. Additionally, certain protected areas face the compound hazard of overtopping and barrier failure -this hazard is not considered in existing analysis of the flood barriers along the Bow River. The overall risk assessment highlights those areas that have the highest combined risk and indicate the particular segments of the barriers that need design improvements to reach the City of Calgary's flood resilience goals.

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“…Evaluating the safety of levees is a major challenge for the managers of these structures in order to predict a risk of failure (Kolen et al, 2013). Moreover, many regulations require the evaluation of the reliability of structures in a probabilistic framework, in order to demonstrate levee failure risks (Ciria et al, 2013 ;Peyras et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A method to assess the failure probabilities of river levees based on Elicitation, Calibration, Aggregation, and Debiasing of expert judgement (IeCAD)

Peyras¹,

Carvajal²,

Diab³

et al. 2021

Science and Practice for an Uncertain Future

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Studies carried out to analyse the risks of levees must include an evaluation of the probabilities of occurrence of different failure mechanisms (overflow, internal erosion, sliding and scouring). The probabilistic quantitative evaluation of these mechanisms remains difficult due to often insufficient input data, the natural variability of the materials, structures of very long length, the availability of mechanical models for certain failure mechanisms, and the random nature of the stresses involved. This makes it necessary to call for expert judgement to evaluate the probabilities of failure. However, expert judgement is generally associated with a qualitative and subjective dimension, and it comprises biases liable to impair the capacities of an expert to elicit their evaluations. This article proposes an approach to processing expert judgement that includes the modalities of Individual expert Elicitation, Calibration, Aggregation, and Debiasing of expert judgement (IeCAD). This IeCAD approach has been developed for river levees in view to correcting biased expert evaluations in the case of evaluating the failure probability of structures.

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Development of an expert‐led GIS‐based approach for assessing the performance of river levees: the Digsure method and tool

Cited by 8 publications

References 16 publications

Analysis of factors influencing levee safety using the DEMATEL method

Analysis of factors influencing levee safety using the DEMATEL method

Flood risk assessment of the City of Calgary considering flood control barrier performance

A method to assess the failure probabilities of river levees based on Elicitation, Calibration, Aggregation, and Debiasing of expert judgement (IeCAD)

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