Development of an enhanced tropical cyclone tracks database for the southwest Pacific from 1840 to 2010

Diamond, Howard J.; Lorrey, Andrew; Knapp, Kenneth R.; Levinson, David H.

doi:10.1002/joc.2412

Cited by 73 publications

(92 citation statements)

References 7 publications

(10 reference statements)

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“…Tropical cyclones pose a significant hazard for many small island nations and have been estimated to account for 76% of natural disasters in the Pacific [1]. The generation of extreme coastal sea levels from storm surges and tides (referred to here as storm tides) and wind-waves are particularly hazardous for coastal communities, many of which are expanding through population pressure and tourism [2].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wind and Wave Setup Contributions to Extreme Sea Levels at a Tropical High Island: A Stochastic Cyclone Simulation Study for Apia, Samoa

Hoeke

McInnes

O’Grady

2015

JMSE

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Wind-wave contributions to tropical cyclone (TC)-induced extreme sea levels are known to be significant in areas with narrow littoral zones, particularly at oceanic islands. Despite this, little information exists in many of these locations to assess the likelihood of inundation, the relative contribution of wind and wave setup to this inundation, and how it may change with sea level rise (SLR), particularly at scales relevant to coastal infrastructure. In this study, we explore TC-induced extreme sea levels at spatial scales on the order of tens of meters at Apia, the capitol of Samoa, a nation in the tropical South Pacific with typical high-island fringing reef morphology. Ensembles of stochastically generated TCs (based on historical information) are combined with numerical simulations of wind waves, storm-surge, and wave setup to develop high-resolution statistical information on extreme sea levels and local contributions of wind setup and wave setup. The results indicate that storm track and local morphological details lead to local differences in extreme sea levels on the order of 1 m at spatial scales of less than 1 km. Wave setup is the overall largest contributor at most locations; however, wind setup may exceed wave setup in some sheltered bays. When an arbitrary SLR scenario (+1 m) is introduced, overall extreme sea levels are found to modestly decrease relative to SLR, but wave energy near the shoreline greatly increases, consistent with a number of other recent studies. These differences have implications for coastal adaptation strategies.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wind and Wave Setup Contributions to Extreme Sea Levels at a Tropical High Island: A Stochastic Cyclone Simulation Study for Apia, Samoa

Hoeke

McInnes

O’Grady

2015

JMSE

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“…There are a number of recent and ongoing projects in this area, but they are restricted to analyses of single storms (e.g., Landsea et al 2004), specific time periods (e.g., Landsea et al 2008), or regions (Diamond et al 2012;T. Kimberlain and P. Caroff 2014, personal communication).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Cyclone Center: Can Citizen Scientists Improve Tropical Cyclone Intensity Records?

Hennon

Knapp

Schreck

et al. 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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The global tropical cyclone (TC) intensity record, even in modern times, is uncertain because the vast majority of storms are only observed remotely. Forecasters determine the maximum wind speed using a patchwork of sporadic observations and remotely sensed data. A popular tool that aids forecasters is the Dvorak technique—a procedural system that estimates the maximum wind based on cloud features in IR and/or visible satellite imagery. Inherently, the application of the Dvorak procedure is open to subjectivity. Heterogeneities are also introduced into the historical record with the evolution of operational procedures, personnel, and observing platforms. These uncertainties impede our ability to identify the relationship between tropical cyclone intensities and, for example, recent climate change. A global reanalysis of TC intensity using experts is difficult because of the large number of storms. We will show that it is possible to effectively reanalyze the global record using crowdsourcing. Through modifying the Dvorak technique into a series of simple questions that amateurs (“citizen scientists”) can answer on a website, we are working toward developing a new TC dataset that resolves intensity discrepancies in several recent TCs. Preliminary results suggest that the performance of human classifiers in some cases exceeds that of an automated Dvorak technique applied to the same data for times when the storm is transitioning into a hurricane.

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“…This is not surprising as Vanuatu is located in the Pacific Ring of Fire and at the centre of the cyclone belt [11]. Diamond et al [12] reported that in the southwest Pacific region the TC season is at its height from January to March.…”

Section: Tropical Cyclonesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity and Its Significance for Developmental Activities in Vanuatu

Saverimuttu

Varua

2016

WIT Transactions on State-of-the-Art in Science and Engineering

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Developing island nations in the Pacific are highly dependent on tourism receipts to support and sustain growth in their economies. Vanuatu consists of an archipelago of 83 islands with a population of approximately 260,000 people. Vanuatu is classified as a least developed nation with a predominance of subsistence agriculture as well as a heavy dependence on the tourism sector as mainstays of the economy. In 2015, a category 5 cyclone struck Vanuatu causing severe destruction in four of its six provinces damaging both of its key industries, tourism and agriculture. Australia, as a key development partner and as a provider of the majority of its tourists has a direct interest in the sustainability and stability of the Vanuatu economy. Australia provides financial as well as humanitarian assistance to Vanuatu in the event of a crisis as well as for developmental purposes. Tropical cyclones are a normal phenomenon in the Southern hemisphere generally during the months of November to April. Even if a cyclone does not make landfall, strong gusts of wind and rainfall can cause significant damage through flooding. Although people can be trained in disaster management techniques and thereby achieve a reduction in the death toll, the damage to property and key industries are inevitable. This paper investigates the impact of cyclone activity on the economy of Vanuatu from the beginning of this century and its significance for the developmental challenges that face this nation. The paper also explores the dependence of Vanuatu on aid programmes and its implications for the management of extreme weather events in order to promote the sustainability of its key industries.

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Development of an enhanced tropical cyclone tracks database for the southwest Pacific from 1840 to 2010

Cited by 73 publications

References 7 publications

Wind and Wave Setup Contributions to Extreme Sea Levels at a Tropical High Island: A Stochastic Cyclone Simulation Study for Apia, Samoa

Wind and Wave Setup Contributions to Extreme Sea Levels at a Tropical High Island: A Stochastic Cyclone Simulation Study for Apia, Samoa

Cyclone Center: Can Citizen Scientists Improve Tropical Cyclone Intensity Records?

Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity and Its Significance for Developmental Activities in Vanuatu

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