Development of a simulation model for the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus infection in Kaluga region

Abstract

The development of the situation around Covid-19 is an urgent problem for the whole world, and it is still not known exactly how the pandemic will develop. However, based on the data of the virus spread to date, it is possible to model the approximate outcome of the activities of humanity in the fight against Covid-19. To develop this model, we used a simulation tool-AnyLogic (Personal Learning Edition) with support for the Java programming language. This software has a large analytical functionality. When creating the Covid-19 infection model, the free version of the program was used. This model is only relevant if the pandemic continues at the same pace. There are many factors that can deviate from the presented model in any direction: early release from restrictive measures, virus mutations, forced vaccination of the population, and other measures that directly affect the main indicators of infection development. In the process of modelling the spread of Covid-19 coronavirus infection in the Kaluga region, results were obtained that reflect the rate of development of the pandemic. Thus, it is possible to identify the weaknesses of the fight against viruses and further minimize the rate of development of the disease.

Analysis and modeling of the probability of developing cardiovascular diseases in humans to identify a risk group

“…This software has a large analytical functionality that allows you to simulate completely differentsituations in the course of a person's activity. A large abundance of automatic calculations allows you to assemble a computer model that is as close to reality as possible [1].…”

“…The quality of medical care is improving every year. However, it is impossible to predict where and what type of new disease will appear [1].…”

“…Access to essential medicines for non-communicable pathologies and essential medical technologies in all primary health care facilities is essential to ensure that those in need receive treatment and advice. Also, the flagship multifunctional centers "My Documents" are now on guard of health, modern diagnostic medical equipment is installed in them [1]. *tkachenkoal@tksu.ru; phone 7 9109124917…”

Analysis and modeling of the impact of restrictive measures on the development of the COVID-19 situation on the example of the Kaluga region

“…General parameters, including general information about the course of coronavirus infection: -TotalPopulationthe population of the Kaluga region at the time of writing. Is a constant integer equal to 1000980 [1].…”

Aspects of the Application of Information Applications in Biophysical Medicine

“…Одной из таких является компания «Генотек». Организация позволяет людям провести ДНК тест и узнать о своем происхождении, получить рекомендации по особенностям образа жизни на основе генома [7,8]. И информационные технологии играют ключевую роль в этом.…”