Development of a risk-hedging CO2-emission policy, part II: Risks associated with measures to limit emissions, synthesis, and conclusions

Abstract

Abstract. This paper is Part II of a two-part series in which the risks associated with unrestrained greenhouse-gas emissions, and with measures to limit emissions, are reviewed. A sustained limitation of global CO2 emissions requires global population stabilization, a reduction in per capita emissions in the developed world, and a limitation of the increase in per capita emissions in the developing world. Reducing or limiting per capita emissions requires a major effort to improve the efficiency with which energy is transformed and used; urban development which minimizes the need for the private automobile and facilitates district heating, cooling, and cogeneration systems; and accelerated development of renewable energy. The following risks associated with these efforts to limit C02 emissions are reviewed here: (i) resources might be diverted from other urgent needs; (ii) economic growth might be reduced; (iii) reduction measures might cost more than expected; (iv) early action might cost more than later action; (v) reduction measures might have undesired side effects; (vi) reduction measures might require heavy-handed government intervention; and (vii) reduction measures might not work. With gradual implementation of a diversified portfolio of measures, these risks can be greatly reduced. Net risk is further reduced by the fact that a number of non-climatic benefits would result from measures to limit CO2 emissions. Based on the review of risks associated with measures to limit emissions here, and the review of the risks associated with unrestrained emissions presented in Part I, it is concluded that a reasonable near-term (20--30 year) risk hedging strategy is one which seeks to stabilize global fossil CO2 emissions at the present (early 1990's) level. This in turn implies an emission reduction of 26% for industrialized countries as a whole and 40-50% for Canada and the USA if developing country emissions are to increase by no more than 60%, which in itself would require major assistance from the industrialized countries. The effectiveness of global CO2-emission stabilization in slowing down the buildup of atmospheric CO2 is enhanced by the fact that the airborne fraction (ratio of annual atmospheric CO2 increase to total annual anthropogenic emissions) decreases if emissions are stabilized, whereas it increases if emissions continue to grow exponentially. The framework and conclusions presented here are critically compared with so-called optimization frameworks.

Development of a risk-hedging CO2-emission policy, part I: Risks of unrestrained emissions

“…This paper reviews the risks associated with unrestrained emissions of GHG's, while the accompanying Part II (Harvey, 1996a) reviews risks associated with actions to reduce energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide, the primary GHG of concern. Assessment of the first set of risks requires an evaluation of the likely future DEVELOPMENT OF A RISK-HEDGING CO2-EMISSION POLICY, PART I 3 carbon-cycle response to continuing CO 2 emissions, of the climatic sensitivity to GHG increases, of the likelihood of positive biogeochemical-climate feedbacks, and of the vulnerability of natural ecosystems, agriculture, and human societies to the resultant climatic change.…”