Development of a New Approach to Earthquake Prediction: Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory

Yin, Xingyao; Wang, Yu-Cang; Peng, Kunling; Bai, Yi-Long; Wang, Haitao; Yin, Xiaochun

doi:10.1007/978-3-0348-7695-7_29

Cited by 30 publications

(55 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…YIN and YIN (1991), YIN (1993), YIN et al (1994YIN et al ( , 1995YIN et al ( , 2000YIN et al ( , 2002 has proposed another approach, to test for crustal criticality, called the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) which is defined as…”

Section: Lurrmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In previous years, a series of successful intermediate-term predictions have been made for strong earthquakes in China and other countries using the LURR parameter (YIN and YIN, 1991;YIN, 1993;YIN et al, 1994YIN et al, , 1995YIN et al, , 1996YIN et al, , 2000YIN et al, , 2002. Usually the released seismic energy is adopted as the ''response'' after which the LURR is defined as:…”

Section: Lurrmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During the establishment of criticality the crust must be characterized by both susceptibility to external factors (WEI et al, 2000;XIA et al, 2002) and strong correlation between its different parts. The former will lead to triggering of earthquakes by tidal stress (GRASSO and SORNETTE, 1998) and consequently anomalously high values of LURR (YIN and YIN, 1991;YIN, 1993;YIN et al, 1994YIN et al, , 1995YIN et al, , 1996YIN et al, , 2000YIN et al, , 2002 are observed prior to large earthquakes. The latter will lead to establishment of long-range correlations in the regional stress field (SYKES and JAUME, 1990;RUNDLE et al, 1999;SAMMIS and SMITH, 1999;PLACE, 2000, 2002;WEATHERLEY, 2002) and accelerating seismic activity of moderate-sized earthquakes (ELLSWORTH et al, 1981;KEILIS-BOROK, 1990;SORNETTE and SAMMI;KNOPOFF et al, 1996 andBOWMAN et al, 1998) and equivalently, the accelerating seismic release prior to large earthquakes follows a power-law time-to-failure relation -AMR/AER (BUFE and VARNES, 1993;BOWMAN et al, 1998;JAUME and SYKES, 1999).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Load-Unload Response Ratio (Lurr), Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (Am/Er) and State Vector Saltation As Precursors To Failure of Rock Specimens

Yin¹,

Yu²,

Kukshenko³

et al. 2004

Computational Earthquake Science Part II

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-In order to verify some precursors such as LURR (Load/Unload Response Ratio) and AER (Accelerating Energy Release) before large earthquakes or macro-fracture in heterogeneous brittle media, four acoustic emission experiments involving large rock specimens under tri-axial stress, have been conducted. The specimens were loaded in two ways: monotonous or cycling. The experimental results confirm that LURR and AER are precursors of macro-fracture in brittle media. A new measure called the state vector has been proposed to describe the damage evolution of loaded rock specimens.

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Section: Lurrmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Lurrmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Load-Unload Response Ratio (Lurr), Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (Am/Er) and State Vector Saltation As Precursors To Failure of Rock Specimens

Yin¹,

Yu²,

Kukshenko³

et al. 2004

Computational Earthquake Science Part II

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The intention of this concept is that when a seismogenic system is in a stable state, its response to loading is nearly the same as its response to unloading, whereas when the system is in an unstable state, the response to loading is stronger than that to unloading. Based on the theory of LURR and its recent development (YIN, 1987;YIN and YIN, 1991;YIN et al, 1995YIN et al, , 2000WANG et al, 1999;MORA et al, 2000aMORA et al, ,b, 2002, spatial and temporal variation of Y/Y c in Southern California and its adjacent area (32°N to 40°N, 114°W to 125°W) during the period from 1980 through March, 2002 has been studied . Here Y c is the critical value of LURR that depends on the number of earthquakes under different specified confidence levels (ZHUANG and YIN, 1999).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Its hypothesis is that an earthquake is the failure or instability of the focal media or seismogenic system. When the system is in a stable state, its response to loading is nearly the same as its response to unloading, whereas when the system is in an unstable state, the response to loading is more sensitive than that to unloading (YIN, 1987;YIN and YIN, 1991;YIN et al, 1995YIN et al, , 2000. YIN (1987) defined LURR in formula (1).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison Between LURR and State Vector Analysis Before Strong Earthquakes in Southern California Since 1980

Zhang¹,

Wu²,

Yin³

et al.

Earthquakes: Simulations, Sources and Tsunamis

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Abstract-There are seven strong earthquakes with M C 6.5 that occurred in southern California during the period from 1980 to 2005. In this paper, these earthquakes were studied by the LURR (Load/Unload Response Ratio) method and the State Vector method to detect if there are anomalies before them. The results show that LURR anomalies appeared before 6 earthquakes out of 7 and State Vector anomalies appeared before all 7 earthquakes. For the LURR method, the interval between maximum LURR value and the forthcoming earthquake is 1 to 19 months, and the dominant mean interval is about 10.7 months. For the State Vector method, the interval between the maximum modulus of increment State Vector and the forthcoming earthquake is from 3 to 27 months, but the dominant mean interval between the occurrence time of the maximum State Vector anomaly and the forthcoming earthquake is about 4.7 months. The results also show that the minimum valid space window scale for the LURR and the State Vector is a circle with a radius of 100 km and a square of 3°93°, respectively. These results imply that the State Vector method is more effective for short-term earthquake prediction than the LURR method, however the LURR method is more effective for location prediction than the State Vector method.

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A probabilistic approach for earthquake potential evaluation based on the load/unload response ratio method

Zhu²

2010

Concurrency and Computation

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SUMMARYPrevious studies indicate that the occurrence of a large earthquake might be predicted by anomalous temporal increase of the load/unload response ratio (LURR), which was often defined as the ratio of Benioff strain of small earthquakes released during loading and unloading time periods, corresponding to earth tide-induced Coulomb failure stress change on optimally oriented faults. The conventional LURR anomalous evaluation usually sets a critical LURR value, above which an earthquake may occur. In this paper a probabilistic approach for the evaluation of earthquake potential based on the LURR method is developed. In the approach, the occurrence probability of a future earthquake is quantitatively evaluated by assessing the confidence level of LURR anomaly associated with its stochastic distribution. As retrospective studies, we apply the approach to investigate the time series of LURR prior to the 50M>6.3 earthquakes that occurred in the Chinese mainland and the 21M>6.0 earthquakes in southern California over the past 30 years, and find high correlation between the confidence level of the LURR anomalies and the occurrence of the large earthquakes. We then depict all the high peaks that appeared in the LURR time series, and evaluate the earthquake occurrence rate as a function of the confidence level. The research results show considerable promise that our probabilistic approach may provide a useful tool to evaluate quantitatively the occurrence possibilities of future earthquakes.

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Development of a New Approach to Earthquake Prediction: Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory

Cited by 30 publications

References 19 publications

Load-Unload Response Ratio (Lurr), Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (Am/Er) and State Vector Saltation As Precursors To Failure of Rock Specimens

Load-Unload Response Ratio (Lurr), Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (Am/Er) and State Vector Saltation As Precursors To Failure of Rock Specimens

Comparison Between LURR and State Vector Analysis Before Strong Earthquakes in Southern California Since 1980

A probabilistic approach for earthquake potential evaluation based on the load/unload response ratio method

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