Development of a multivariable prediction model for severe COVID-19 disease: a population-based study from Hong Kong

Zhou, Jiandong; Lee, Sharen; Wang, Xiansong; Li, Yang; Wu, William Ka Kei; Liu, Tong; Cao, Zhidong; Zeng, Daniel; Leung, Keith Sai Kit; Wai, Abraham Ka Chung; Wong, Ian Chi Kei; Cheung, Bernard Man Yung; Zhang, Qingpeng; Tse, Gary

doi:10.1038/s41746-021-00433-4

Cited by 29 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Those patients had significantly lower HDL-C levels [34.7 mg/dL (27.0–50.2)] compared with that of 225 non-severe cases [42.5 mg/dL (34.7–50.2)], ( p = 0.03). Similar results regarding LDL-C were observed (p < 0.0001) [ 16 ].…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 87%

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High-density lipoprotein cholesterol: A marker of COVID-19 infection severity?

Agouridis

Pagkali

Ζιντζαράς

et al. 2021

Atherosclerosis Plus

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Background and aims To systematically address all the relevant evidence of the association between high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and COVID-19 infection. Methods We searched PubMed, PubMed Central and medRxiv databases (up to May 2021) for studies related to HDL-C and COVID-19 infection. A qualitative synthesis of published prospective and retrospective studies for the role of low HDL-C levels on COVID-19 infection severity was performed. Results Thirty-three studies (6 prospective, 27 retrospective) including 11,918 COVID-19 patients were eligible for the systematic review. Twelve studies compared HDL-C levels on admission in COVID-19 patients with healthy controls. In these 12 studies, COVID-19 patients had significantly lower HDL-C levels on admission compared with that of healthy controls. Twenty-eight studies observed the HDL-C levels among COVID-19 diagnosed patients, to establish the role of low HDL-C values in the prognosis of the infection. Twenty-four studies showed a correlation between low HDL-C levels with disease severity, while only 4 studies showed no association. Conclusions Low HDL-C levels should be added in the list of the others well-known risk factors for COVID-19 severity.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 87%

“…In a population-based study from Hong Kong, among 268 COVID-19 patients, 43 met the primary outcome (composite intensive care unit admission, need for intubation or death) [ 16 ]. Those patients had significantly lower HDL-C levels [34.7 mg/dL (27.0–50.2)] compared with that of 225 non-severe cases [42.5 mg/dL (34.7–50.2)], ( p = 0.03).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

High-density lipoprotein cholesterol: A marker of COVID-19 infection severity?

Agouridis

Pagkali

Ζιντζαράς

et al. 2021

Atherosclerosis Plus

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“…Previous studies successfully predicted the OS based on clinical signs, co-morbidities, ICU length of stay, and socioeconomic conditions [ [47] , [48] , [49] , [50] ]. Adding to this, our work identified age, D-dimer concentration, leukocyte parameters and CXR score to be prognostic markers of OS in COVID-19 patients.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Haematological and radiological-based prognostic markers of COVID-19

Alsagaby

Aljouie

Alshammari

et al. 2021

Journal of Infection and Public Health

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Background Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has emerged in 2019 and caused a global pandemic in 2020, manifesting in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The majority of patients exhibit a mild form of the disease with no major complications; however, moderate to severe and fatal cases are of public health concerns. Predicting the potential prognosis of COVID-19 could assist healthcare workers in managing the case and controlling the pandemic in an effective way. Methods Here, clinical data of COVID-19 patients admitted to two large centers in Saudi Arabia between April and June 2020 were retrospectively analysed. The objectives of the study were to search for biomarkers associated with COVID-19 mortality and predictors of the overall survival (OS) of the patients. Results More than 23% of the study subjects with available data have died, enabling the prediction of mortality in our cohort. Markers that were significantly associated with mortality in our study were older age, increased D-dimer in the blood, higher counts of WBCs, higher percentage of neutrophil, and a higher chest X-ray (CXR) score. The CXR scores were also positively associated with age, D-dimer, WBC count, and percentage of neutrophil. This supports the utility of CXR scores in the absence of blood testing. Predicting mortality based on Ct values of RT-PCR was not successful, necessitating a more quantitative RT-PCR to determine virus quantity in samples. Our work has also identified age, D-dimer concentration, leukocyte parameters and CXR score to be prognostic markers of the OS of COVID-19 patients. Conclusion Overall, this retrospective study on hospitalised cohort of COVID-19 patients presents that age, haematological, and radiological data at the time of diagnosis are of value and could be used to guide better clinical management of COVID-19 patients.

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“…In this study, we demonstrated that simple parameters from a routine hematological workup have the capacity to be useful predictors of hospital admission in COVID-19 patients on the day of positive COVID-19 swab. Recently, several studies describing predictive modeling for COVID-19 have been published, focusing on prediction models for COVID-19 diagnosis [16] , COVID-19 severity [17] , and patient mortality [18] . A common disadvantage of many proposed models is the requirement of detailed patient information including CT scans [19,20] , other imaging data [21,22] , extensive specialist knowledge, that is, APACHE II score [23] , additional protein marker tests [24] , or extensive patient history and clinical workup [25,26] , and the need for rapid AI-based diagnostic and prognostic system for COVID-19 remains an unmet challenge [27] .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of hematological parameters in covid-19 patients in district Hapur

Kansal¹,

Joon²,

Kumar³

et al. 2021

Int. J. Clin. Diagn. Pathol.

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The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) sparked from Wuhan city of China and rapidly developed into a pandemic. The critically ill patients of COVID-19 exhibit features of hyper inflammation, and the particular blood tests may be rewarding for prognosis. Our aim was to investigate the CBC, which includes total leukocyte, lymphocytes and granulocytes count, Hemoglobin, MCV, MCH, MCHC, RBCs and Platelet count, NLR etc. The current study was conducted to conclude the alteration in blood parameters and their association with the severity and mortality of COVID-19 patients. Methods: An observational cross-sectional study was conducted retrospectively, a total of 100 COVID-19 positive patients were examined: 50 were mild, 25 were moderate, 10 were severe, and 15 were critically diseased patients. Unfortunately, we recorded 6 deaths among the critical group. The overall mean age observed in our study was 48.94 years, where the mean age for critical individuals was 62.12 ± 14.35 years. Results: A significant association between the disease severity and elevation in blood parameters were observed. The total WBC's and Neutrophils count were significantly decreased (p value<0.001). The lymphocyte count was increased in critical patients (1.40 × 109 /L) compared to mild patients (1.92 × 109 /L) (p = 0.28). Conclusion:These blood parameters could be used as a suitable biomarker for the prognosis and severity of COVID-19. Evaluating novel hemograms, NLR can aid clinicians to identify potentially severe cases at early stages, initiate effective management in time, and conduct early triage which may reduce the overall mortality of COVID-19 patients.

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Development of a multivariable prediction model for severe COVID-19 disease: a population-based study from Hong Kong

Cited by 29 publications

References 40 publications

High-density lipoprotein cholesterol: A marker of COVID-19 infection severity?

High-density lipoprotein cholesterol: A marker of COVID-19 infection severity?

Haematological and radiological-based prognostic markers of COVID-19

Evaluation of hematological parameters in covid-19 patients in district Hapur

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