Development of a model to simulate groundwater inundation induced by sea-level rise and high tides in Honolulu, Hawaii

Habel, Shellie; Fletcher, Charles H.; Rotzoll, Kolja; El‐Kadi, Aly I.

doi:10.1016/j.watres.2017.02.035

Cited by 78 publications

(72 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Additional factors to consider in future refinements of this technique include the diminishing influence of SLR inland from the coast, the potential effects of tides, waves, and extreme rainfall events, and the need for more accurate local measurements to establish the effects of different geologic conditions and underground pipe and pump systems on the level of groundwater rise. Modeling efforts incorporating measurements of tidal influence and groundwater flow, such as those that Habel et al conducted in regard to Honolulu, HI [36], are needed in the areas that were identified as potential hotspots by our method.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While previous studies established the existence of rising groundwater due to SLR [2,[4][5][6]9,10,22,31], as well as the potential impact at case study sites [2,4,5,28,31,37], this paper provides a method for building a regional-scale view of the potentially widespread impacts on surface flooding, underground infrastructure, and the health of people and ecosystems. Understanding the full range of SLR impacts is essential for prioritizing adaptation investments, and selecting appropriate strategies in coastal cities [15,35,36]. Other low-lying urban areas around the world with shallow and unconfined coastal aquifers have an urgent need to identify the potential for future groundwater flooding as a result of sea level rise.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Rapid Assessment Method to Identify Potential Groundwater Flooding Hotspots as Sea Levels Rise in Coastal Cities

Plane

Hill

May

2019

Water

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Sea level rise (SLR) will cause shallow unconfined coastal aquifers to rise. Rising groundwater can emerge as surface flooding and impact buried infrastructure, soil behavior, human health, and nearshore ecosystems. Higher groundwater can also reduce infiltration rates for stormwater, adding to surface flooding problems. Levees and seawalls may not prevent these impacts. Pumping may accelerate land subsidence rates, thereby exacerbating flooding problems associated with SLR. Public agencies at all jurisdiction levels will need information regarding where groundwater impacts are likely to occur for development and infrastructure planning, as extreme precipitation events combine with SLR to drive more frequent flooding. We used empirical depth-to-water data and a digital elevation model of the San Francisco Bay Area to construct an interpolated surface of estimated minimum depth-to-water for 489 square kilometers along the San Francisco Bay shoreline. This rapid assessment approach identified key locations where more rigorous data collection and dynamic modeling is needed to identify risks and prevent impacts to health, buildings, and infrastructure, and develop adaptation strategies for SLR.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Rapid Assessment Method to Identify Potential Groundwater Flooding Hotspots as Sea Levels Rise in Coastal Cities

Plane

Hill

May

2019

Water

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“…This could be due to increase in rainfall, especially during the wet season (see Table 1). Such events of RCP 8.5 scenarios can potentially have adverse consequences, such as damages to infrastructures in the downstream, drainage systems, and loss of aquatic biota [29,31]. It may also cause an increase in the frequency of overflows from the river, which likely results in potential flooding and more sediment transport in the downstream part of the watersheds.…”

Section: Impact Of Climate Change On Extreme Peak Flowsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Estimating the impact of future climate change on water budget elements is of importance for an overall water resources management approach. However, assessing future extreme values is also of critical need due to their significant impact on the economy, environment, and human life [6,29,31]. Additionally, a detailed overview on the possible impacts of future climate change scenarios on streamflow duration curves and hydrological extremes has not been documented yet.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on Daily Streamflow and Its Extreme Values in Pacific Island Watersheds

2018

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Abstract:The integration of hydrology and climate is important for understanding the present and future impact of climate on streamflow, which may cause frequent flooding, droughts, and shortage of water supply. In view of this, we assessed the impact of climate change on daily streamflow duration curves as well as extreme peak and low flow values. The objectives were to assess how climate change impacts watershed-wide streamflow and its extreme values and to provide an overview of the impacts of different climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5) on streamflow and hydrological extremes when compared with the baseline values. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for daily streamflow and its extreme value modeling of two watersheds located on the Island of Oahu (Hawaii). Following successful calibration and validation of SWAT at three USGS flow gauging stations, we simulated the impact of climate change by the 2050s (2041-2070) and the 2080s (2071-2100). We used climate change perturbation factors and applied the factors to the historical time series data of 1980-2014. SWAT adequately reproduced observed daily streamflow with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values of greater than 0.5 and bracketed >80% of observed streamflow data at 95% model prediction uncertainty at all flow gauging stations, indicating the applicability of the model for future daily streamflow prediction. We found that while the considered climate change scenarios generally show considerable negative impacts on daily streamflow and its extreme values, the extreme peak flows are expected to increase by as much as 22% especially under the RCP 8.5 scenario. However, a consistent decrease in extreme low flows by as much as 60% compared to the baseline values is projected. Larger negative changes of low flows are expected in the upstream part of the watersheds where higher groundwater contributions are expected. Consequently, severe problems, such as frequent hydrological droughts (groundwater scarcity), reduction in agricultural crop productivity, and increase in drinking water demand, are significantly expected on Oahu. Furthermore, the extreme values are more sensitive to rainfall change in comparison to temperature and solar radiation changes. Overall, findings generally indicated that climate change impacts will be amplified by the end of this century and may cause earlier occurrence of hydrological droughts when compared to the current hydrological regime, suggesting water resources managers, ecosystem conservationists, and ecologists to implement mitigation measures to climate change in Hawaii and similar Islands.

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“…Hydrological extremes may also cause serious problems, such as shortage of water supply, landslides, soil erosion, and damage to existing infrastructures [14][15][16][17][18]. Other negative consequences of climate change include an increase in sea level rise [19][20][21], which could cause frequent occurrence of hydrological extreme events, such as groundwater inundation and subsequent flooding, particularly in low-lying areas [22][23][24][25]. Such events are anticipated to cause loss of inhabitants, strongly damage existing surface, sub-surface and wastewater drainage systems, and negatively influence the economy and recreational areas of low-lying communities [24,25].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Daily Extreme Peak and Low Flows of Zenne Basin in Belgium

Leta

Bauwens

2018

Hydrology

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Integrating hydrology with climate is essential for a better understanding of the impact of present and future climate on hydrological extremes, which may cause frequent flooding, drought, and shortage of water supply. This study assessed the impact of future climate change on the hydrological extremes (peak and low flows) of the Zenne river basin (Belgium). The objectives were to assess how climate change impacts basin-wide extreme flows and to provide a detailed overview of the impacts of four future climate change scenarios compared to the control (baseline) values. The scenarios are high (wet) summer (projects a future with high storm rain in summer), high (wet) winter (predicts a future with high rainfall in winter), mean (considers a future with intermediate climate conditions), and low (dry) (projects a future with low rainfall during winter and summer). These scenarios were projected by using the Climate Change Impact on HYDRological extremes perturbation tool (CCI-HYDR), which was (primarily) developed for Belgium to study climate change. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to predict the impact of climate change on hydrological extremes by the 2050s (2036-2065) and the 2080s (2066-2095) by perturbing the historical daily data of . We found that the four climate change scenarios show quite different impacts on extreme peak and low flows. The extreme peak flows are expected to increase by as much as 109% under the wet summer scenario, which could increase adverse effects, such as flooding and disturbance of the riverine ecosystem functioning of the river. On the other hand, the low (dry) scenario is projected to cause a significant decrease in both daily extreme peak and low flows, by as much as 169% when compared to the control values, which would cause problems, such as droughts, reduction in agricultural crop productivity, and increase in drinking water and other water use demands. More importantly, larger negative changes in low flows are predicted in the downstream part of the basin where a higher groundwater contribution is expected, indicating the sensitivity of a basin to the impact of climate change may vary spatially and depend on basin characteristic. Overall, an amplified, as well as an earlier, occurrence of hydrological droughts is expected towards the end of this century, suggesting that water resources managers, planners, and decision makers should prepare appropriate mitigation measures for climate change for the Zenne and similar basins.

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Development of a model to simulate groundwater inundation induced by sea-level rise and high tides in Honolulu, Hawaii

Cited by 78 publications

References 23 publications

A Rapid Assessment Method to Identify Potential Groundwater Flooding Hotspots as Sea Levels Rise in Coastal Cities

A Rapid Assessment Method to Identify Potential Groundwater Flooding Hotspots as Sea Levels Rise in Coastal Cities

Impact of Climate Change on Daily Streamflow and Its Extreme Values in Pacific Island Watersheds

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Daily Extreme Peak and Low Flows of Zenne Basin in Belgium

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