Development of a methodology to evaluate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) under changing climate conditions: Application to southern Quebec, Canada

Rousseau, Alain N.; Klein, Iris Maria; Freudiger, Daphné; Gagnon, Patrick; Frigon, Anne; Ratté-Fortin, Claudie

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.10.053

Cited by 67 publications

(55 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Nevertheless, PMP/PMF estimation methods have been continuously developed and improved. Beauchamp et al (2013), Lagos-Zuniga and Vargas (2014), and Felder and Weingartner (2016) discuss the role of the spatio-temporal distribution of the PMP on the PMF, while Rousseau et al (2014) and Stratz and Hossain (2014) discuss climate change and stationarity issues. Hence, Faulkner and Benn (2016), Micovic et al (2015), Rouhani and Leconte (2016), and Salas et al (2014) have proposed incorporating uncertainty bands into the PMP estimation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses

Zischg

Felder

Weingartner

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The assessment of the impacts of extreme floods is important for dealing with residual risk, particularly for critical infrastructure management and for insurance purposes. Thus, modelling of the probable maximum flood (PMF) from probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by coupling hydrological and hydraulic models has gained interest in recent years. Herein, we examine whether variability in precipitation patterns exceeds or is below selected uncertainty factors in flood loss estimation and if the flood losses within a river basin are related to the probable maximum discharge at the basin outlet. We developed a model experiment with an ensemble of probable maximum precipitation scenarios created by Monte Carlo simulations. For each rainfall pattern, we computed the flood losses with a model chain and benchmarked the effects of variability in rainfall distribution with other model uncertainties. The results show that flood losses vary considerably within the river basin and depend on the timing and superimposition of the flood peaks from the basin's sub-catchments. In addition to the flood hazard component, the other components of flood risk, exposure, and vulnerability contribute remarkably to the overall variability. This leads to the conclusion that the estimation of the probable maximum expectable flood losses in a river basin should not be based exclusively on the PMF. Consequently, the basin-specific sensitivities to different precipitation patterns and the spatial organization of the settlements within the river basin need to be considered in the analyses of probable maximum flood losses.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses

Zischg

Felder

Weingartner

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…For more comprehensive application the integrated method for PMP estimation covering all foreseeable storm scenarios can be developed in the future. Moreover, the climate change impact on PMP estimation is also an important issue (Kunkel et al 2013;Rousseau et al 2014;Stratz and Hossain 2014) and may be investigated in future work.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Probable Maximum Precipitation by Considering Combined Effect of Typhoon and Southwesterly Air Flow

Liu¹,

Yang²,

Kuo³

et al. 2016

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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Typhoon Morakot hit southern Taiwan in 2009, bringing 48-hr of heavy rainfall [close to the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)] to the Tsengwen Reservoir catchment. This extreme rainfall event resulted from the combined (co-movement) effect of two climate systems (i.e., typhoon and southwesterly air flow). Based on the traditional PMP estimation method (i.e., the storm transposition method, STM), two PMP estimation approaches, i.e., Amplification Index (AI) and Independent System (IS) approaches, which consider the combined effect are proposed in this work. The AI approach assumes that the southwesterly air flow precipitation in a typhoon event could reach its maximum value. The IS approach assumes that the typhoon and southwesterly air flow are independent weather systems. Based on these assumptions, calculation procedures for the two approaches were constructed for a case study on the Tsengwen Reservoir catchment. The results show that the PMP estimates for 6-to 60-hr durations using the two approaches are approximately 30% larger than the PMP estimates using the traditional STM without considering the combined effect. This work is a pioneer PMP estimation method that considers the combined effect of a typhoon and southwesterly air flow. Further studies on this issue are essential and encouraged.

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“…Recent studies on flood frequency in the south-central Québec study area [28,29,59,60] show an increase in floods over the last three decades, with somewhat more pronounced peaks in the last few years ( Figure 6). This increase in flood events also results in an increase in summer and fall floods, although spring floods are more numerous [58][59][60].…”

Section: Flood Eventsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…This increase in flood events also results in an increase in summer and fall floods, although spring floods are more numerous [58][59][60]. For example, between 1960 and 2010, over 60 flood events were recorded in south-central Québec catchments, with close to 50% occurring in the spring [58].…”

Section: Flood Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distribution of Soil Organic Carbon in Riparian Forest Soils Affected by Frequent Floods (Southern Québec, Canada)

Saint-Laurent

Gervais-Beaulac

Paradis

et al. 2017

Forests

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Abstract:Measuring soil organic carbon (SOC) in riparian forest soils affected by floods is crucial for evaluating their concentration and distribution along hydrological gradients (longitudinal and transversal). Hydromorphological factors (e.g., sedimentation vs. erosion, size of floodplain, flood recurrence) may be the cause of major variations in the concentration of organic matter and SOC in soils and could have a direct impact on C levels in soil profiles. For this study, SOC concentrations were assessed in riparian soils collected along transects perpendicular to the riverbanks which cross through inundated and non-inundated zones. Other soil properties (e.g., acidity, nitrogen, texture, bulk density) that may affect the concentration of SOC were also considered. The main purpose of this study was to assess SOC concentrations in soils subjected to flooding with those outside the flood zones, and also measure various soil properties (in surface soils and at various depths ranging from 0 to 100 cm) for each selected area. Across the various areas, SOC shows marked differences in concentration and spatial distribution, with the lowest values found in mineral soils affected by successive floods (recurrence of 0-20 years). SOC at 0-20 cm in depth was significantly lower in active floodplains (Tukey HSD test), with average values of 2.29 ± 1.64% compared to non-inundated soils (3.83 ± 2.22%). The proportion of C stocks calculated in soils (inundated vs. non-inundated zones) was significantly different, with average values of 38.22 ± 10.40 and 79.75 ± 29.47 t·ha −1 , respectively. Flood frequency appears to be a key factor in understanding the low SOC concentrations in floodplain soils subjected to high flood recurrence (0-20 years).

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Development of a methodology to evaluate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) under changing climate conditions: Application to southern Quebec, Canada

Cited by 67 publications

References 32 publications

Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses

Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses

Estimating Probable Maximum Precipitation by Considering Combined Effect of Typhoon and Southwesterly Air Flow

Distribution of Soil Organic Carbon in Riparian Forest Soils Affected by Frequent Floods (Southern Québec, Canada)

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