Development of a Methodology for Assessment and Analysis of the Export Conjuncture of Russian Manufacturing Enterprises

Abstract

The article explains the current methodological approaches to the analysis of the export conjuncture (on the example of Russian ma nufacturing enterprises), including a new methodology for its integral assessment. This assessment is made by modeling the global demand for domestic products and their price competitiveness in the international market.The importance of the analysis of the current phase of Russia's economic development is emphasized, when a structural transformation of industrial and export policy is taking place and a new contour of foreign economic activity is being formed. This necessitates the improvement of methods for export climate assessment. The author underlines the relevance of using not only qualitative and quantitative indicators, but also their hybrid modifications in the economic and statistical analysis of export trends. The article presents a new hybrid measure – the Export Climate Index (ECI), which aggregates the indicators of demand for domestic manufactured goods and their price competitiveness in the international market. The methodology for its calculation is based on theoretical developments, adapted to the specifics of the Russian economy, and the best world practices for measuring and analyzing export trends.The quantified results of business and consumer surveys in the countries that are Russia's main trading partners, as well as the real effective exchange rate of the ruble according to the Bank of Russia, are used for empirical calculations.The calculations results revealed a significant leading correlation between the ECI dynamics and the dynamics of the referent – the indicator of export of goods in value terms, confirming the possibility of using the new index not only for an integral assessment of the export climate in Russia, but also as a short-term predictor that effectively supplements statistical measures.