Development of a market penetration forecasting model for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles considering infrastructure and cost reduction effects

Park, Sang Yong; Kim, Jong Wook; Lee, Dukhee

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.03.021

Cited by 102 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…For example, Yang and Meng (2001) proposed a modified logistic growth model to investigate the adoption rate of advanced traveler information systems. Park et al (2011) proposed a diffusion model to simulate the market penetration of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Lavasani et al (2016) developed a market penetration model to forecast the AV technology adoption by considering the price difference between AV and CV, as well as the economic wealth of the population.…”

Section: Av Diffusion Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal deployment of autonomous vehicle lanes with endogenous market penetration

Chen

Zhang

et al. 2016

Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies

187

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Section: Av Diffusion Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal deployment of autonomous vehicle lanes with endogenous market penetration

Chen

Zhang

et al. 2016

Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies

187

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show abstract

“…Other studies incorporate similar diffusion structures but add other policy dimensions such as regulation, including manufacturer responses, Walther et al, (2010), add other indicators such as impact on fuel duty revenues (Shepherd et al, (2012) and the co-evolution of infrastructure for refuelling and extending to the cases of Natural gas, Jannsen et al, (2006) and Hydrogen Fuel Cell vehicles (Meyer et al, (2009) Kohler et al, (2010, Park et al,(2011)). Meanwhile others have investigated the role of strategic niche management, Kwon (2012), the implication of policies on distributional issues, Harrison and Shepherd, (2013) and applied similar diffusion models to the case of electric motorcycles in Taiwan, Trappey et al, (2012).…”

Section: Application Area Number Of Papersmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of system dynamics models applied in transportation

Shepherd

2014

Transportmetrica B: Transport Dynamics

147

103

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It is 20 years since Abbas and Bell (1994) evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of system dynamics as an approach for modelling in the transportation area. They listed 12 advantages of the approach and in particular suggested it was well suited to strategic issues and that it could provide a useful tool for supporting policy analysis and decision-making in the transport field. This paper sets out a review of over 50 peer-reviewed journal papers since 1994 categorising them by area of application and providing a summary of particular insights raised. The fields of application include the take-up of alternate fuel vehicles, supply chain management affecting transport, highway maintenance, strategic policy, airport infrastructure and airline business cycles and a set of emerging application areas. The paper concludes with recommendations for future application of the system dynamics approach.

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“…Others explore the impact of governmental regulations on the automotive industries (Walther et al 2010). Several contributions examine on the overall transition process of the mobility market towards a more sustainable one in order to obtain deeper insights into the occurring market mechanisms (Schade and Schade 2005;Janssen et al 2006;Bosshardt et al 2007;Struben and Sterman 2008;Bouza et al 2009;Park et al 2011;Shepherd et al 2012) or the economic impact of alternative vehicle technologies in general (Leaver and Gillingham 2010) or focus on the infrastructure and the inherent chicken-and-eggproblem (Welch 2006;Meyer and Winebrake 2009). Also the fuel price (Jun et al 2008), consumers' adoption behavior (Santa Eulalia et al 2011) or the stakeholders' perspective (Keles et al 2008) have been addressed.…”

Section: Selected Aspects Of Modelling Innovation Diffusionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Simulating resistances in innovation diffusion over multiple generations: an agent-based approach for fuel-cell vehicles

Zsifkovits

Günther

2015

Cent Eur J Oper Res

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Innovation resistances play a major role in innovation diffusion, as they do not only hinder the adoption, but might also change a decision maker's evaluation. Although these influences are widely accepted, previous models on the diffusion of new technologies and products have either reduced these multiple dimensions of uncertainties to only one parameter, or have completely neglected them altogether. Both might lead to a pro-innovation bias. Therefore we present an agent-based approach that takes several different innovation resistances in a multi-generation environment into account. Hydrogen vehicles and the necessity of setting up a corresponding infrastructure were chosen for a sample application as they incorporate a band of various dimensions of innovation resistance. Examples are the uncertain infrastructure situation, the uncertainty arising from new and improved features, the uncertainty about the technologies' real ecological benefit, the unknown maintenance cycles and costs, or the ambiguous technical parameters such as vehicle range. These various uncertainties are even more distinctive if multiple technology generations are considered. Our results indicate that a short-term decrease in the adoption rate can be observed although the technological parameters of a later product generation might be more beneficial for the consumers. As we show, this effect can be eased through timing variation of the communication measures. Therefore we conclude that considering multiple innovation resistance factors in innovation diffusion might reduce the pro-innovation bias.

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Development of a market penetration forecasting model for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles considering infrastructure and cost reduction effects

Cited by 102 publications

References 22 publications

Optimal deployment of autonomous vehicle lanes with endogenous market penetration

Optimal deployment of autonomous vehicle lanes with endogenous market penetration

A review of system dynamics models applied in transportation

Simulating resistances in innovation diffusion over multiple generations: an agent-based approach for fuel-cell vehicles

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