Development of a Forest Fire Diagnostic Model Based on Machine Learning Techniques

Abstract

Forest fires have devastating effects on extensive forest areas, compromising vital ecological services such as air purification, water conservation, and recreational opportunities, thus posing a significant socioeconomic threat. Furthermore, the risk of forest fires is steadily increasing due to climate change. The most effective method for mitigating forest fire risk is proactive prevention before forest fires can occur by identifying high-risk areas based on land surface conditions. This study aimed to develop a machine learning-based forest fire diagnostic model designed for South Korea, considering both satellite-derived land surface data and anthropogenic factors. For the remote sensing data, VTCI (Vegetation Temperature Condition Index) was used to reflect the land surface dryness. In addition, fire activity maps for buildings, roads and cropland were used to consider the influence of human activities. The forest fire diagnostic model yielded an accuracy of 0.89, demonstrating its effectiveness in predicting forest fire risk. To validate the effectiveness of the model, 92 short-term forest fire risk forecast maps were generated from March to May 2023 with real-time data on forest fire occurrences collected for verification. The results showed that 73% of forest fires were accurately classified within high-risk zones, confirming the operational accuracy of the model. Through the forest fire diagnostic model, we have presented the impact relationships of meteorological, topographical, and environmental data, as well as the dryness index based on satellite images and anthropogenic factors, on forest fire occurrence. Additionally, we have demonstrated the potential uses of surface condition data.