Development of a Decision Support Tool for Kenya’s Coastal Management

Abstract

Coastal management is criƟ cal in view of the danger posed to coastal communiƟ es by fl ooding from the sea due to storm surges, sea-level rise and Tsunamis. The low-lying Kenyan coast is vulnerable to these hazards, therefore modeling their eff ects is necessary for understanding their socioeconomic impacts. A Decision Support Tool (DST) was developed to study the hydrodynamics along the Kenyan coast. The bathymetry grid for the DST was created using Arc View GIS from nauƟ cal charts. MIKE 21 Hydrodynamic Module (HD) Demo version was used to organize the bathymetry and enforce boundary condiƟ ons for ELCOM simulaƟ on. Tidal data was obtained from both the Kenya Meteorological Department's Ɵ dal gauges and the GLOSS staƟ on. The computed Ɵ de and currents from ELCOM were validated using graphical and staƟ sƟ cal comparison. Their predicƟ ve ability was analyzed. The ELCOM water levels and currents compared well to observed values, and their dominant signals were detectable. ELCOM could, therefore, simulate and forecast coastal hydrodynamics. This DST can assist the Government in operaƟ onal forecasƟ ng for marine environmental protecƟ on, resources management and disaster risk reducƟ on and miƟ gaƟ on as well as infrastructure mapping and development along the Kenyan coast.