Development of a clinical scoring system to make a presumptive diagnosis of Kyasanur Forest Disease: a case-control study from South India

Abstract

Kyasanur Forest Disease (KFD) is a viral haemorrhagic fever endemic in South India. Based on clinical presentation alone, it is challenging to distinguish KFD from other febrile illnesses in the region. The study aimed to develop a clinical scoring system for early presumptive diagnosis of KFD. Patients and methods: This retrospective case-control study included microbiologically diagnosed KFD patients (n=186) with other undifferentiated febrile illnesses as controls (n=203). The clinical and laboratory features between cases and controls were compared. A logistic regression analysis included those variables found to be significantly associated with KFD on univariate analysis. The adjusted odds ratio for the significant variables was calculated and converted into logarithmic scales. These numbers were rounded off to the nearest integer to find the score assigned to each variable. A receiver operating characteristics curve was created to find the best cut-off for the scoring system that predicted the diagnosis of KFD. Results: A total of 186 anonymised cases and 203 anonymised controls were recruited from the records for this study. Myalgia, headache, lymphadenopathy, bleeding manifestations, Central Nervous System (CNS) involvement, raised haematocrit, leukopenia, and raised transaminases were more common in patients with KFD. Except for lymphadenopathy and raised transaminases, all the other variables were independent predictors of making a diagnosis of KFD. Since raised transaminases tended towards significance, it was included in the scoring system with other independent predictors. A scoring system was created with a maximum score of 12. The receiver operating characteristic curve showed an Area Under Curve of 0.912 (95%CI: 0.88-0.94). A score of 4 or more was found to have a sensitivity and specificity of 83% and 87%, respectively. Conclusion:The presence of specific features should alert primary care physicians working in endemic areas about the possibility of KFD. This diagnostic scoring system can be used to make a presumptive diagnosis of KFD after undergoing a prospective validation study.