‘Development in reverse’? A longitudinal analysis of armed conflict, fragility and school enrolment

Abstract

This paper presents a longitudinal analysis of cross-national data on armed conflict, state fragility, and enrolment in primary and secondary schooling. The study is motivated by questions raised in the 2012 Human Security Report, which challenges the widely-held assumption that conflict is necessarily detrimental to educational outcomes. We use multilevel modelling techniques to determine how conflict and fragility relate to changes in enrolment. Our findings suggest that growth in enrolment is significantly lower in conflictaffected countries but that the effect is dependent upon countries' overall enrolment level. However, when we control for fragility, the effect of conflict is not significant, which is consistent with the Human Security Report's suggestion that fragility is an underlying cause of both conflict and poor educational outcomes. We conclude by discussing the relevance of our findings and challenges for future research on fragility and education.

Pathways toward Peace: Negotiating National Unity and Ethnic Diversity through Education in Botswana

“…At independence, Botswana was among the poorest and least educated countries in the world (Gulbrandsen 2012, 255), and it was surrounded by countries experiencing armed conflict in the form of civil wars -in Angola, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe -and ongoing racial strife -in South Africa and Namibia. Further, Botswana exemplified many of the same predictors of conflict: an economy based on natural resources (Acemoglu and Robinson 2012;Collier and Hoeffler 2004); low levels of education (Shields and Paulson 2014); and high ethnic diversity with one ethnic group numerically dominant (Alesina et al 2003;Collier 2001;Eifert, Miguel, and Posner 2010).…”

Education in Emergencies: A Review of Theory and Research

“…Historically, the field of education in emergencies viewed education as largely neutral, if not wholly positive, leading almost inevitably to a range of positive outcomes including child protection and well-being, economic development, peace building, and reconstruction (Davies, 2004, 2005; Davies & Talbot, 2008; Kagawa, 2005; Novelli & Cardozo, 2008; Paulson & Rappleye, 2007). More recently, however, scholars and practitioners have acknowledged that the relationship between education and conflict is more complex than previously recognized (Brock, 2011; Burde et al, 2011; Davies, 2004; King, 2011, 2014; Østby & Urdal, 2010; Rappleye, 2011; Shields & Paulson, 2015; Smith, 2007). This shift was influenced both by the events of September 11, as noted above, as well as by a policy paper titled “The Two Faces of Education in Ethnic Conflict” (Bush & Saltarelli, 2000).…”

“…Finally, although educational attainment drops dramatically in fragile states, the decline appears to be more modest in conflict-affected states—a finding that is important to proponents of education as a tool for promoting state stability. Thus, state fragility (measured by the State Fragility Index) may be a stronger predictor of negative effects than conflict (Paulson & Shields, 2015; Shields & Paulson, 2015).…”

“…The impact tends to be greater for younger children than for older ones (Akresh & de Walque, 2008; Dabalen & Paul, 2012; Verwimp & Van Bavel, 2013). However, in certain contexts the negative impact of fighting on education is not as clear (de Groot & Göksel, 2011; Swee, 2009; Valente, 2011) and may be mediated by a variety of contextual factors as well as the intensity and length of conflict (Shields & Paulson, 2015). More evidence is needed on these mediating factors.…”

Understanding the Nexus between Conflict, Displacement, and Schooling: A Case Study of IDPs in Pakistan

“…In fact, it has been verified that there is high dropout rate among children in developing countries with only 65 percent children finishing primary school due to conflict (Akresh and De Walque 2008). Donors have been providing major support to conflict areas to alleviate these problems and improve educational infrastructure for IDPs, mainly at the primary school level rather than the secondary and tertiary levels despite the fact that secondary education has suffered a rapid decline (Shemyakina 2007;Swee 2009;UNHRC 2009;Shields and Paulson 2014).…”