Development and Verification of a Rapid Refresh Wave Forecasting System

Abstract

A rapid refresh wave forecasting system has been developed using the sea wind on the Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System. We carried out a numerical experiment for wind-wave interaction as an important parameter in determining the forecasting performance. The simulation results based on the seasons of with typhoon and without typhoon has been compared with the observation of the ocean data buoy to verify the forecasting performance. In case of without typhoon, there was an underestimate of overall forecasting tendency, and it confirmed that an increase in the wind-wave interaction parameter leads to a decrease in the underestimate tendency and root mean square error (RMSE). As a result of typhoon season by applying the experiment condition with minimum RMSE on without typhoon, the forecasting error has increased in comparison with the result without typhoon season. It means that the wave model has considered the influence of the wind forcing on a relatively weak period on without typhoon, therefore, it might be that the wave model has not sufficiently reflected the nonlinear effect and the wave energy dissipation due to the strong wind forcing.

Verification of Forecast Performance of a Rapid Refresh Wave Model Based on Wind–Wave Interaction Effect

“…Therefore, it plays a dominant role in the wave development and propagation processes and exhibits a more significant effect on the wave forecast results than other physical parameters. As this is the most dominant variable with respect to wind-wave development, a previous study examined the effect of changes in the physical variables of the rapid refresh wave model by varying the value of β max between 1.15 and 3.25, and the wave model was executed for the non-typhoon season [44].…”

“…When β max was set based on the non-typhoon season, the wave development and propagation processes caused by the typhoon were not sufficiently reflected. Moreover, the sea wind forecast error and tendencies influenced the forecast performance of the wave model [44].…”

“…When 𝛽 was set based on the non-typhoon season, t development and propagation processes caused by the typhoon were not suffici flected. Moreover, the sea wind forecast error and tendencies influenced the forec formance of the wave model [44]. In addition to the analysis results regarding significant wave height, we anal wave period and wave direction to understand the influence of the changes in the parameters, which indicate the wind forcing and wave interactions, on the physi ponents of the wave.…”