Development and validation of prognostic nomograms for early-onset locally advanced colon cancer

Li, Yuqiang; Liu, Wenxue; Zhou, Zhongyi; Ge, Heming; Zhao, Lilan; Liu, Heli; Song, Xiangping; Wang, Dan; Pei, Qian; Tan, Fengbo

doi:10.18632/aging.202157

Cited by 28 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Our study shows more strength than previous related nomograms. On the one hand, unlike previous nomograms that just included patients with colon cancer [38][39][40], our nomogram focused on patients with colon cancer and those with rectal cancer, no matter the stage situation. On the other hand, our nomogram involved some distinct variables, such as SES and LNR, which were also reported to be important predictors of prognosis.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prognostic nomogram to predict the overall survival of patients with early-onset colorectal cancer: a population-based analysis

Chen

et al. 2021

Int J Colorectal Dis

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Purpose The present study aimed to identify independent clinicopathological and socio-economic prognostic factors associated with overall survival of early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) patients and then establish and validate a prognostic nomogram for patients with EO-CRC. Methods Eligible patients with EO-CRC diagnosed from 2010 to 2017 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients were randomly divided into a training cohort and a testing cohort. Independent prognostic factors were obtained using univariate and multivariate Cox analyses and were used to establish a nomogram for predicting 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS). The discriminative ability and calibration of the nomogram were assessed using C-index values, AUC values, and calibration plots. Results In total, 5585 patients with EO-CRC were involved in the study. Based on the univariate and multivariate analyses, 15 independent prognostic factors were assembled into the nomogram to predict 3- and 5-year OS. The nomogram showed favorable discriminatory ability as indicated by the C-index (0.840, 95% CI 0.827–0.850), and the 3- and 5-year AUC values (0.868 and 0.84869 respectively). Calibration plots indicated optimal agreement between the nomogram-predicted survival and the actual observed survival. The results remained reproducible in the testing cohort. The C-index of the nomogram was higher than that of the TNM staging system (0.840 vs 0.804, P < 0.001). Conclusion A novel prognostic nomogram for EO-CRC patients based on independent clinicopathological and socio-economic factors was developed, which was superior to the TNM staging system. The nomogram could facilitate postoperative individual prognosis prediction and clinical decision-making.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prognostic nomogram to predict the overall survival of patients with early-onset colorectal cancer: a population-based analysis

Chen

et al. 2021

Int J Colorectal Dis

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“…Noriyuki,H, et al reported LMR was associated with cancer-speci c survival (CSS) of esophageal cancer patients after curative esophagectomy. In particular, a low LMR was an independent predictor of poor survival in non-elderly patients [16].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Nomogram based on SIS predicting the survival of non-surgical thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma treated by IMRT

Zhu

Dong

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Background: Several inflammatory markers have been reported to be associated with clinical outcomes in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). This study was to evaluate several pre-radiotherapy serum inflammatory indicators, including the neutrophil / lymphocytes ratio (NLR), platelet / lymphocyte (PLR), systemic immune-inflammatory index (SII), systemic inflammation score(SIS), and compare which one has the highest predicted survival value. Finally, combining inflammatory markers with traditional prognostic factors, a new Nomogram model was developed to predict overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) for ESCC patients receiving radiotherapy (RT) or chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Methods: This study retrospectively reviewed the data of 245 patients with thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) underwent RT or CRT in the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2013 to December 2015. The survival differences of these indexes were compared by the Kaplan-Meier method, and the univariate and the multivariate analyses were performed to determine these prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to create nomogram for OS and PFS.Results: 239 patients met the eligibility criteria. The estimated 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and PFS rates were 74.6%, 36.8%, 26.5% and 58.4%, 31.3%, 20.5%, respectively, for the whole group. The difference in survival between OS and PFS was significant when univariate analysis were applied based on these inflammation-based measures. Multivariate analysis showed that tumor length, T stage, TNM stage, chemotherapy, SIS were predictive variables for OS and PFS in the multivariate model. The nomogram model established based on multivariate models of training data set had good predictive ability, the unadjusted C-index was 0.701 (95% CI, 0.662– 0.740) and 0.695 (95% CI, 0.656 - 0.734) for OS and PFS. Conclusions: This study show that SIS, as a comprehensive indicator of inflammation and nutrition, had the strongest predictive power for evaluating prognosis. Moreover, our nomogram can accurately predict OS and PFS after treatment and may provide guidance regarding adjuvant therapy and surveillance.

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“…The risk score does not always increase with age in our nomogram. Previous research indicated that young cancer patients suffered a higher risk of lymph node metastasis [27][28][29], which may be the reason why the risk score of PDAC patients under 50 is higher than that of ones aged 51-60. Limitations of this study include: (1) the use of retrospective data; (2) detailed treatment information for included patients were not recorded in the SEER cohort, and we cannot investigate specific options, including R0 or not, preoperative or postoperative chemotherapy in the survival of PDAC patients; (3) other important factors, such as proximity/involvement of major vascular structures, CA 19-9, and patient comorbidities should also be minded.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

A novel risk-scoring system conducing to chemotherapy decision for patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma after pancreatectomy

Li¹,

Tian²,

Zhou³

et al. 2021

J. Cancer

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Background: Chemotherapy is suggested to use in all stages of pancreatic cancer. Is it reasonable to recommend chemotherapy for all PDAC patients? It is necessary to distinguish low-risk PDAC patients underwent pancreatectomy, who may not lose survival time due to missed chemotherapy and not need to endure pain, nausea, tiredness, drowsiness, and breath shortness caused by chemotherapy. Methods: Nomograms were constructed with basis from the multivariate Cox regression analysis. X-tile software was utilized to perform risk stratification. Survival curves were used to display the effect of chemotherapy in different risk-stratification. Results: All of the significant variables were used to create the nomograms for overall survival (OS). The total risk score of each patient was calculated by summing the scores related to each variable. X-tile software was utilized to classify patients into high-risk (score >283), median-risk (197

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Development and validation of prognostic nomograms for early-onset locally advanced colon cancer

Cited by 28 publications

References 26 publications

Prognostic nomogram to predict the overall survival of patients with early-onset colorectal cancer: a population-based analysis

Prognostic nomogram to predict the overall survival of patients with early-onset colorectal cancer: a population-based analysis

Nomogram based on SIS predicting the survival of non-surgical thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma treated by IMRT

A novel risk-scoring system conducing to chemotherapy decision for patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma after pancreatectomy

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