Development and validation of prognostic nomogram for patients with metastatic gastric adenocarcinoma based on the SEER database

Abstract

The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic factors affecting overall survival in patients with metastatic gastric adenocarcinoma and to establish a nomogram prediction model for comprehensive clinical application. Data from 2370 patients with metastatic gastric adenocarcinoma between 2010 and 2017 were retrieved from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database. They were randomly divided into a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%), univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to screen important variables that may affect overall survival and to establish the nomogram. The nomogram model was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis. Internal validation was performed to test the accuracy and validity of the nomogram. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses revealed that, age, primary site, grade, and American joint committee on cancer. T, bone metastasis, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, tumor Size, and chemotherapy were identified as independent prognostic factors for overall survival and were included in the prognostic model to construct a nomogram. The prognostic nomogram showed good overall survival risk stratification ability for the area under the curve, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis in both the training and validation sets. Kaplan–Meier curves further showed that patients in the low-risk group had better overall survival. This study synthesizes the clinical, pathological, therapeutic characteristics of patients with metastatic gastric adenocarcinoma, establishes a clinically effective prognostic model, and that can help clinicians to better evaluate the patient’s condition and provide accurate treatment.