Development and validation of nomograms to predict survival in patients with invasive micropapillary carcinoma of the breast

Background: Salivary gland carcinoma (SGC) patients with distant metastasis (DM) are rare, and understanding this disease is insufficient. Nomograms can predict the prognostic probability of patients, while few studies have examined diagnostic and prognostic factors in SGC patients with DM. The purpose of this study was to establish and validate the risk and prognostic nomograms of SGC patients with DM. Methods: Based on the SEER database, we analyzed the data of SGC patients between 2004 and 2015. Logistic regression analyses and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to identify risk and prognostic factors for DM in SGC patients. Based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) value and likelihood ratio test, the best-fitting model was selected to build risk and prognostic nomograms, and the results were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and Kaplan–Meier (K–M) survival curves. ROC curves were also used to compare the nomograms with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. Results: 7418 SGC patients were included in the study, and 307 (4.14%) of them were diagnosed with DM. This study identified that there are variables (age ≥ 80, no-parotid gland primary site, histologic type of mucoepidermoid carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma, T stage ≥ T2, N staged ≥ N1, histologic grade ≥ III, and tumor size ≥ 41 mm) associated with the occurrence of DM in SGC patients. Therefore, we constructed diagnostic and prognostic nomograms after incorporating these variables. ROC curves illustrated the better predictive efficacy of 2 nomograms over the AJCC staging system. DCA curves, calibration curves, and K-M survival curves showed that 2 nomograms can accurately predict the occurrence and prognosis of DM among SGC patients in training and validation sets. Conclusion: It was shown that the nomograms were highly discriminative in predicting the diagnosis and prognosis of SGC patients with DM, and could identify high-risk patients, thereby providing SGC patients with individualized treatment plans.

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Prognostic model for oversurvival and tumor-specific survival prediction in patients with advanced extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: a population-based analysis

Zhang,

Qiao,

Zhao

et al. 2023

BMC Gastroenterol

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Background The prognosis of patients with extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ECCA) must be determined with precision. However, the usual TNM staging system has the drawback of ignoring age, adjuvant therapy, and gender and lacks the ability to more correctly predict patient prognosis. Therefore, we determine the risk factors of survival for patients with advanced ECCA patients and developed brand-new nomograms to forecast patients with advanced ECCA’s overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). Method From the Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, patients with advanced ECCA were chosen and randomly assigned in a ratio of 6:4 to the training and validation subgroups. The cumulative incidence function (CIF) difference between groups was confirmed by applying Gray’s and Fine test and competing risk analyses. Next, the cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) nomograms for advanced ECCA were developed and validated. Results In accordance with the selection criteria, 403 patients with advanced ECCA were acquired from the SEER database and then split at random into two groups: a training group (n = 241) and a validation group (n = 162). The 1-, 2-, and 3-year cancer-specific mortality rates were 58.7, 74.2, and 78.0%, respectively, while the matching mortality rates for the competition were 10.0, 13.8, and 15.0%. Nomograms were generated for estimating OS and CSS, and they were assessed using the ROC curve and the C-index. The calibration curves showed that there was a fair amount of agreement between the expected and actual probabilities of OS and CSS. Additionally, greater areas under the ROC curve were seen in the newly developed nomograms for OS and CSS when compared to the 7th AJCC staging system. The advanced ECCA patients were divided into groupings with an elevated risk and those with a low risk and the Kaplan-Meier method was used for the survival analysis, which showed that survival time was shorter in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group. Conclusion The proposed nomograms have good predictive ability. The nomograms may can help doctors determine the prognosis of patients with advanced ECCA as well as provide more precise treatment plans for them.

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Development and validation of nomograms to predict survival in patients with invasive micropapillary carcinoma of the breast

Cited by 4 publications

References 29 publications

Long-term outcome of invasive pure micropapillary breast cancer compared with invasive mixed micropapillary and invasive ductal breast cancer: a matched retrospective study

Long-term outcome of invasive pure micropapillary breast cancer compared with invasive mixed micropapillary and invasive ductal breast cancer: a matched retrospective study

Development and Validation of Nomograms to Predict Risk and Prognosis in Salivary Gland Carcinoma Patient with Distant Metastases

Prognostic model for oversurvival and tumor-specific survival prediction in patients with advanced extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: a population-based analysis

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