Development and Validation of an Agent-Based Simulation Model of Juvenile Delinquency

Predicting the Development of Juvenile Delinquency by Simulation

“…A next step was to validate the model based on the empirical data mentioned in Section 2. In this research [2], a representative sample of the collected dataset has been selected, and has been split up in a training set and test set. Each set contained the data of around 250 pupils.…”

“…where Hits, Misses, Correct Rejections and False Alarms are defined according to the classical measures in signal detection theory [5]. For more details, see [2]. The factor 'risk orientedness' (model 8 and 9) indicates the extent to which the pupils like performing exciting activities, and the factor 'deviance reinforcement' (model 9-11) indicates the extent to which the pupils are sensitive to influences of their friends.…”

“…This provides opportunities to develop a computational model of this process. In previous research [2], we developed such a model, which was able to predict the level of delinquency of students based on information about the personal characteristics and their peer network. The model was validated by using a large dataset with information about 1730 scholars (taken from [14]).…”

“…A drawback is that the resulting numbers are calculated on the basis of all possible instances of the discrimination threshold, whereas in the accuracy approach only the best instance is taken. And since for the simulation experiments only this best instance will be used, the accuracy approach could be considered to be more useful 2. This relatively low number is mainly due to the dip at the right-hand side of the graph.…”

Routledge Handbook of Crime Science

“…• Researchers at the Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam use a logical approach to the specification of the macroscopic regularity, where a kind of model checking separates simulated behavioural traces that lead to crime from those that do not lead to crime (Bosse et al, 2007a(Bosse et al, , 2007bGerritsen, 2008, 2009;Bosse et al, 2009bBosse et al, , 2009aBosse et al, 2009b). • Researchers at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver use an interactive approach towards the detection of the macroscopic regularity, in the sense that successful simulations exhibit for example crime hotspots (Glässer et al, 2006;Brantingham et al, 2004Brantingham et al, , 2005.…”