Development and Validation of a Prognostic Nomogram in Patients with Bladder Cancer after Radical Cystectomy: A Study Based on the Chinese Population

Abstract

PurposeTo develop and validate a prognostic nomogram in patients with bladder cancer who underwent radical cystectomy based on the Chinese population.MethodsThe nomogram was built on a retrospective study included 191 patients with bladder cancer who underwent radical cystectomy between January 2010 to December 2019 at the authors’ hospital. The primary cohort was divided into the training cohort and the validation cohort randomly. The endpoints in the study were disease-free survival and overall survival. The ability of distinguishing and predicting of the prognostic nomogram were determined by calibration plot and concordance index in the training cohort. Moreover, the results were also verified in the validation cohort internally.ResultsMultivariate analysis of the training cohort showed that hydronephrosis, Stage_T, Stage_N, PNI and EGFR were significantly associated with overall survival. Meanwhile, Stage_T, Stage_N, PNI and EGFR were independent risk factors for disease-free survival. The calibration plot agreed well between prediction and actual observation in survival possibility. The concordance index of the nomogram in the training cohort of overall survival and disease-free survival were 0.834 (95%CI: 0.785-0.833) and 0.823 (95%CI: 0.772-0.873), respectively. In the validation cohort, the nomogram also showed high predictive accuracy.ConclusionThe proposed nomogram showed high accuracy in predicting survival for bladder cancer patients after radical cystectomy.