Development and validation of a predictive nomogram for postoperative osteonecrosis of the femoral head with cannulated screws fixation

Abstract

Background: Osteonecrosis of the femoral head (ONFH) remains a major complication of femoral neck fractures. Early interventions require preliminary prediction and detection. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the perioperative variables of postoperative ONFH in femoral neck fracture patients with closed reduction and cannulated screw fixation. We also established and validated an individualized nomogram for the prediction of postoperative ONFH. Methods: We included 470 patients with ONFH from two hospitals [First Affiliated Hospital of University of Science and Technology of China (n=360) and Southern Branch of the First Affiliated Hospital of the University of Science and Technology of China (n=110)]. We evaluated the prognostic value of multiple perioperative variables using a Cox regression model in the training cohort. We developed a nomogram for the prediction of ONFH using a logistic regression model. We assessed the performance of this nomogram in a validation cohort and evaluated its clinical value.Results: Of the 470 patients who met the inclusion criteria, 141 (30.0%) developed postoperative ONFH.