Development and validation of a risk score for predicting mortality after resection of primary hepatocellular carcinoma

Abstract

Background: Primary hepatocellular carcinoma (PHCC) has a poor prognosis and high short-term mortality rate, even after resection. Thus, early diagnosis in PHCC cases can help improve quality of life via personalized management strategies. Results: The risk score system (RSS) were classified as low risk (<5 points), medium risk (5–10 points), or high risk (>10 points). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.80 in the training cohort and 0.69 in the validation cohort, which indicated satisfactory prognostic performance. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test ( P >0.05) revealed consistent performance in both groups. The concordance index (C-index: 0.663, 95% CI: 0.618–0.708) revealed excellent discrimination and good calibration in the validation cohort. Conclusions: This simple RSS, which is based on clinical and laboratory data from patients undergoing resection of PHCC, might allow clinicians and medical staff to better manage PHCC. Materials and Methods: A total of 672 PHCC cases were retrospectively obtained from the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University between January 2007 and February 2015. Cox proportional hazard models were used to identify independent predictors of mortality. Kaplan-Meier curves and the log-rank test were used to examine the relationships between the prognostic factors and overall mortality.