Development and validation of a prognostic model to predict clinical deterioration in hospitalized patients with COVID-19

Abstract

Objectives We aimed to develop and validate a prognostic model to predict clinical deterioration defined as either death or intensive care unit admission of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Methods This prospective, multicenter study investigated 172 consecutive hospitalized COVID-19 patients who underwent a chest computed tomography (CT) scan between March 20 and April 30, 2020 (development cohort), as well as an independent sample of 40 consecutive patients for external validation (validation cohort). The clinical, laboratory, and radiologic data were gathered, and logistic regression along with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed. Results The overall clinical deterioration rates of the development and validation cohorts were 28.4% (49 of 172) and 30% (12 of 40), respectively. Seven predictors were included in the scoring system with a total score of 15: CT severity score\(\ge\)15 (Odds Ratio (OR)=6.34, 4 points), pleural effusion (OR = 6.80, 2 points), symptom onset to admission ≤ 6 days (OR = 2.44, 2 points), age\(\ge\)70 years (OR = 2.44, 2 points), diabetes mellitus (OR = 2.24, 2 points), dyspnea (OR = 2.17, 1.5 points), and abnormal leukocyte count (OR = 1.89, 1.5 points). The area under the ROC curve for the scoring system in the development and validation cohorts was 0.823 (CI [0.751–0.895]) and 0.558 (CI [0.340–0.775]), respectively. Conclusion This study provided a new easy-to-calculate scoring system with external validation for hospitalized COVID-19 patients to predict clinical deterioration based on a combination of seven clinical, laboratory, and radiologic parameters.