Development and Internal Validation of Risk Assessment Models for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Coal Workers

Abstract

Coal workers are more likely to develop chronic obstructive pulmonary disease due to exposure to occupational hazards such as dust. In this study, a risk scoring system is constructed according to the optimal model to provide feasible suggestions for the prevention of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in coal workers. Using 3955 coal workers who participated in occupational health check-ups at Gequan mine and Dongpang mine of Hebei Jizhong Energy from July 2018 to August 2018 as the study subjects, random forest, logistic regression, and convolutional neural network models are established, and model performance is evaluated to select the optimal model, and finally a risk scoring system is constructed according to the optimal model to achieve model visualization. The training set results show that the logistic, random forest, and CNN models have sensitivities of 78.55%, 86.89%, and 77.18%; specificities of 85.23%, 92.32%, and 87.61%; accuracies of 81.21%, 85.40%, and 83.02%; Brier scores of 0.14, 0.10, and 0.14; and AUCs of 0.76, 0.88, and 0.78, respectively, and similar results are obtained for the test set and validation set, with the random forest model outperforming the other two models. The risk scoring system constructed according to the importance ranking of random forest predictor variables has an AUC of 0.842; the evaluation results of the risk scoring system shows that its accuracy rate is 83.7% and the AUC is 0.827, and the established risk scoring system has good discriminatory ability. The random forest model outperforms the CNN and logistic regression models. The chronic obstructive pulmonary disease risk scoring system constructed based on the random forest model has good discriminatory power.

Assessment and Analysis of Occupational Risks in Underground Mining of Polymetallic Ores

“…At ore mines, the incidence rate of workers with vibration disease is 30.3, and sensorineural hearing loss is 24.1 cases per 10000 workers who have passed a medical examination. During underground work, noise-vibration pathology is diagnosed mainly in sinkers, and miners of the treatment face [16,31]. Initially, the responsibility for the health and life of the employee lies with the employer.…”

“…The study also determined the replaceable noise loads using mathematical calculations [16][17][18]. The vibration load was characterized by an equivalent value or dose, and the permissible dose of vibration per shift was calculated using the permissible adjusted value and the exposure time of miners (480 minutes).…”