Development and evaluation of flood forecasting models for forecast-based financing using a novel model suitability matrix

Hagen, Jenny Sjåstad; Cutler, Andrew D.; Trambauer, Patricia; Weerts, Albrecht; Suarez, Pablo; Solomatine, Dimitri

doi:10.1016/j.pdisas.2020.100076

Cited by 19 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…A forecast-based financing scheme based on climate forecast was developed to distribute funding to humanitarian organizations in advance to disasters in an automated manner. This scheme enables humanitarian organizations to adopt anticipatory actions (de Perez et al , 2015; Hagen et al , 2020; Lopez et al , 2020; Schwerdtle et al , 2020). The scheme of forecast-based financing is further developed by Lopez et al (2020) by introducing a valuation approach, which helps various types of users to determine what thresholds should be used as the triggers for early actions.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The use of climate information in humanitarian relief efforts: a literature review

Yan

2023

JHLSCM

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Purpose This paper aims to provide a systematic literature review of the state-of-the-art applications of climate information in humanitarian relief efforts, to further the knowledge of how climate science can be better integrated into the decision-making process of humanitarian supply chains. Design/methodology/approach A systematic literature review was conducted using a combination of key search terms developed from both climate science and humanitarian logistics literature. Articles from four major databases were retrieved, reduced and analyzed. Findings The study illustrates the status of application of climate information in humanitarian work, and identifies usability, collaboration and coordination as three key themes. Originality/value By delivering an overview of the current applications and challenges of climate information, this literature review proposes a three-phase conceptual framework.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The use of climate information in humanitarian relief efforts: a literature review

Yan

2023

JHLSCM

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“…Prediction of extreme precipitation events is of prime importance in flood forecasting using hydrodynamic models as forecasted precipitation serves as the major dynamic input along with static inputs like digital elevation model, land use land cover data (Hagen et al., 2020) used for mathematical representation of the study domain. However, the terrain zonal heterogeneity, land‐ocean interaction, and complex weather system pose challenges in the forecasting of extreme precipitation events, especially in the Indian subcontinent region (Khaladkar et al., 2007).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Novel Response Priority Framework for an Urban Coastal Catchment Using Global Weather Forecasts‐Based Improved Flood Risk Estimates

Ghosh,

Shastri,

Ghosh

et al. 2023

JGR Atmospheres

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A novel flood risk forecasting‐based response priority framework is proposed in this study, which will facilitate efficient decision‐making ahead of an extreme precipitation event. This study is demonstrated over a highly flood‐prone and geomorphologically diverse coastal catchment in Mumbai city, the financial capital of India, and is subjected to high spatio‐temporal variability of precipitation. A regional precipitation forecast model is developed, where a quantile regression‐based statistical approach is applied to the global weather forecasts for improvement in finer resolution extreme precipitation estimates. A quantile regression is performed between the observed synoptic‐scale predictors obtained from ERA Interim Reanalysis dataset and the observed sub‐daily precipitation within the study area. Subsequently, a set of reliably well‐simulated forecasted predictors obtained from the ensemble members of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) are used in the established relationship to obtain extreme precipitation forecasts for higher quantile levels. The forecasted precipitation data serves as an essential input to a comprehensive hydrodynamic flood modelling framework. The flood inundation maps corresponding to different quantiles of forecasted precipitation are quantified to identify the flood hotspots. The set of flood inundations maps developed for different quantiles are utilized to demarcate the areas based on critical response time, i.e., the time required by each cell within the study area to be inundated to a certain threshold depth, and the response priority levels for each cell are determined. This information is combined with socio‐economic vulnerability, a critical component of flood risk, to derive conjugated socio‐economic vulnerability‐based response priority maps.

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“…Shreevastav et al [3] objectively assessed the vulnerability of community life in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Bagmati River corridor in southern Nepal; using data obtained from questionnaires and interviews, the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI and IPCC-LVI) was calculated in conjunction with the IPCC definition and the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework. Hagen et al [31] advocate a stronger interface between model developers and model users to develop flood forecasting models based on forecast financing to support global disaster reduction risk escalation. The above research can help to support the planning and construction of flood hazard risk minimization and flood shelters of local government, and even for national and international level.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using SWAT Model to Assess the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Changes on Flood in the Upper Weihe River, China

Yin-ge

Zhao

et al. 2022

Water

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Flood disasters have occurred frequently in recent years, but there is no consensus on the mechanism and influencing factors. Taking the upper reaches of Weihe River Basin as a case in Western China, a soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was established to quantitatively simulate the impact of land use and climate change on runoff changes, while 4 extreme land-use scenarios and 24 temperature and precipitation scenarios assumptions were proposed to simulate the response of runoff to land use and climate changes. The SWAT simulation results showed that the sensitivity parameters affecting the model simulation were the CANMX, CN2, SOL_K, CH_N2, and SOL_AWC. The correlation index R2 and the efficiency coefficient ENS of the upper Weihe River were both in the range of 0.75–0.78, the relative error PS between the simulated results and the measured runoff was below 10%, suggesting the good applicability of the SWAT model in this study area. Using the improved SWAT model to simulate the peak runoff (flood) simulation value is generally smaller than the measured value, and the absolute value of the error is less than 6%. The expansion of wasteland increased the runoff by over 90% on average, the expansion of cultivated land increased the runoff by 8% on average, and the expansion of woodland and grassland increased the surface runoff by 6% on average. When the precipitation decreased by 25% and the temperature increased by 22%, the smallest runoff was obtained in the simulation. Accordingly, when the precipitation increased by 25% and the temperature decreased by 22%, the maximum annual runoff was obtained. By decomposing the contribution rate of human activities and climate change to runoff, it showed that the contribution rate of human activities to the reduction of runoff was greater than that of climate change. This study can provide scientific reference for the simulation and prediction of future floods.

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Development and evaluation of flood forecasting models for forecast-based financing using a novel model suitability matrix

Cited by 19 publications

References 38 publications

The use of climate information in humanitarian relief efforts: a literature review

The use of climate information in humanitarian relief efforts: a literature review

A Novel Response Priority Framework for an Urban Coastal Catchment Using Global Weather Forecasts‐Based Improved Flood Risk Estimates

Using SWAT Model to Assess the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Changes on Flood in the Upper Weihe River, China

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