Development and evaluation of CNRM Earth system model – CNRM-ESM1

Séférian, Roland; Delire, Christine; Decharme, Bertrand; Voldoire, Aurore; Mélia, David Salas y; Chevallier, Matthieu; Saint‐Martin, David; Aumont, Olivier; Calvet, Jean‐Christophe; Carrer, Dominique; Douville, Hervé; Franchistéguy, Laurent; Joetzjer, Émilie; Sénési, Stéphane

doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1423-2016

Cited by 70 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 138 publications

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“…The climate physics and the global carbon cycle are resolved at a resolution of about 1 • . For further details, see the skill assessment of CNRM-ESM1 against modern observations conducted in Séférian et al (2016). In a context of future scenarios, allowable CO 2 emissions as estimated from CNRM-ESM1 compares well to those of derived from other CMIP5 models (figure S1).…”

Section: Earth System Modelmentioning

confidence: 72%

“…A larger ensemble of simulations would have been preferable but a 3 members ensemble represents a reasonable compromise between the ensemble size and the number of mitigation pathways. In the following, global warming (ΔT) is estimated as the difference of the temperature between the future mitigation pathways and the preindustrial control simulation of CNRM-ESM1 as detailed in Séférian et al (2016).…”

Section: Earth System Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this paper, we explore this specific issue through the combined assessment of techno-economic and water availability factors that could hamper the large-scale deployment of BECCS under a set of stylized stringent mitigation pathways compatible with the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal with an Earth system model, CNRM-ESM1 (Séférian et al 2016), and an integrated assessment model, IMACLIM-R (Waisman et al 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Constraints on biomass energy deployment in mitigation pathways: the case of water scarcity

Séférian

Rocher

Guivarch

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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To limit global warming to well below 2• most of the IPCC-WGIII future stringent mitigation pathways feature a massive global-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs) before the end of the century. The global-scale deployment of NETs like Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) can be hampered by climate constraints that are not taken into account by Integrated assessment models (IAMs) used to produce those pathways. Among the various climate constraints, water scarcity appears as a potential bottleneck for future land-based mitigation strategies and remains largely unexplored. Here, we assess climate constraints relative to water scarcity in response to the global deployment of BECCS. To this end, we confront results from an Earth system model (ESM) and an IAM under an array of 25 stringent mitigation pathways. These pathways are compatible with the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal and with cumulative carbon emissions ranging from 230 Pg C and 300 Pg C from January 1st onwards. We show that all stylized mitigation pathways studied in this work limit warming below 2• C or even 1.5• C by 2100 but all exhibit a temperature overshoot exceeding 2• C after 2050. According to the IAM, a subset of 17 emission pathways are feasible when evaluated in terms of socio-economic and technological constraints. The ESM however shows that water scarcity would limit the deployment of BECCS in all the mitigation pathways assessed in this work. Our findings suggest that the evolution of the water resources under climate change can exert a significant constraint on BECCS deployment before 2050. In 2100, the BECCS water needs could represent more than 30% of the total precipitation in several regions like Europe or Asia.

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Section: Earth System Modelmentioning

confidence: 72%

Section: Earth System Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Constraints on biomass energy deployment in mitigation pathways: the case of water scarcity

Séférian

Rocher

Guivarch

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…In the following, we quantify the potential predictability of the global land and ocean carbon fluxes in the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques-Earth System Model version 1 (CNRM-ESM1) (Séférian, Delire, et al, 2016). We use a "perfect model" approach based on a preindustrial simulation of 400 years and five 10-member ensembles each starting at a different date.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Decadal Predictability of Land and Ocean Carbon Uptake

Séférian

Berthet

Chevallier

2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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The decadal predictability of carbon fluxes has been examined over continents and oceans using a “perfect model” approach based on a 400 year preindustrial simulation and five 10‐member ensembles from the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques‐Earth System Model version 1. From these experiments, we find that the global land uptake and ocean carbon uptake are potentially predictable by up to six years, with a median predictability horizon of four years. Predictability of global carbon uptake is prominently driven by the ocean's predictability. The difference in predictability between ocean and land carbon fluxes stems from the relative capability of ocean or land to generate low‐frequency fluctuations in carbon flux. Indeed, ocean carbon fluxes display low‐frequency variability that emerges from the year‐to‐year variability in the North Atlantic, the North Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. The Southern Ocean carbon uptake can be predicted up to six years in advance and explains most of the global carbon uptake predictability.

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“…To investigate this question, we determine the amount of carbon removal induced by the deployment of SRM across six state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) using the allowable carbon emission framework . The sustainability of this carbon removal after SRM termination is also explored, across the six ESMs over a period of 20 years after SRM termination and using an extended simulation of 80 years after SRM termination performed with Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques-Earth System Model version 1 (CNRM-ESM1, Séférian et al, 2016).…”

Section: 1029/2019ef001165mentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Solar Radiation Modification on Allowable CO₂ Emissions: What Can We Learn From Multimodel Simulations?

2019

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Solar radiation modification (SRM) is known to strengthen both land and ocean carbon uptake because of its impacts on surface temperature, solar radiation, and other potential drivers of the global carbon cycle. However, the magnitude and timing of the response of both land and ocean carbon uptake to SRM and its consequence on allowable CO2 emissions remain poorly understood. Here we use the results of six Earth system models simulating a continuous stratospheric injection of 5 Tg of sulfur dioxide per year between 2020 and 2069 under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 to investigate the impact of SRM on land and ocean carbon uptake. We find that 50 years of SRM under this protocol increases the allowable CO2 emissions by 40 ± 19 GtC; 85% of this additional uptake of carbon is stored in the land biosphere and 15% in the ocean. This increase in allowable CO2 emissions is however not sustainable after the stoppage of SRM. Earth system models predict a mean release of 8 ± 11 GtC of the carbon back to the atmosphere 20 years after the stoppage which is dominated by large uncertainties in the response of the simulated land carbon cycle to rising temperature and solar radiation. We demonstrate that the time scales of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) potential of SRM are smaller than the time scales of the geological storage assumed in well‐established CDR options. This shows that the CDR potential of SRM should be compared to well‐established CDR options with caution.

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Development and evaluation of CNRM Earth system model – CNRM-ESM1

Cited by 70 publications

References 138 publications

Constraints on biomass energy deployment in mitigation pathways: the case of water scarcity

Constraints on biomass energy deployment in mitigation pathways: the case of water scarcity

Assessing the Decadal Predictability of Land and Ocean Carbon Uptake

Impact of Solar Radiation Modification on Allowable CO₂ Emissions: What Can We Learn From Multimodel Simulations?

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Development and evaluation of CNRM Earth system model – CNRM-ESM1

Cited by 70 publications

References 138 publications

Constraints on biomass energy deployment in mitigation pathways: the case of water scarcity

Constraints on biomass energy deployment in mitigation pathways: the case of water scarcity

Assessing the Decadal Predictability of Land and Ocean Carbon Uptake

Impact of Solar Radiation Modification on Allowable CO2 Emissions: What Can We Learn From Multimodel Simulations?

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Product

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Impact of Solar Radiation Modification on Allowable CO₂ Emissions: What Can We Learn From Multimodel Simulations?