Development and calibration of a model for the potential establishment and impact of Aedes albopictus in Europe

Pasquali, Sara; Mariani, Luigi; Calvitti, Maurizio; Moretti, Riccardo; Ponti, Luigi; Chiari, Mario; Sperandio, Giorgio; Gilioli, Gianni

doi:10.1016/j.actatropica.2019.105228

Cited by 24 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…We described the population dynamics of C. capitata through a process-based model based on the Kolmogorov equation (Lee et al 1976;Weiss 1986;Bergh and Getz 1988;Iannelli 1995;Buffoni and Pasquali 2007;Rafikov et al 2008;Solari and Natiello 2014;Lanzarone et al 2017). This modelling approach has already been applied to investigate the dynamics and the potential distribution of Bemisia tabaci (Gilioli et al 2014), Lobesia botrana (Gilioli et al 2016), Pomacea caniculata (Gilioli et al 2017b, c), Aedes albopictus (Pasquali et al 2020) and the phenology of Cydia pomonella (Pasquali et al 2019). Full mathematical details of the model presented can be found in supplementary material 2.…”

Section: Model Assumptionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Non-linear physiological responses to climate change: the case of Ceratitis capitata distribution and abundance in Europe

et al. 2021

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Understanding how climate change might influence the distribution and abundance of crop pests is fundamental for the development and the implementation of pest management strategies. Here we present and apply a modelling framework assessing the non-linear physiological responses of the life-history strategies of the Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata, Wiedemann) to temperature. The model is used to explore how climate change might influence the distribution and abundance of this pest in Europe. We estimated the change in the distribution, abundance and activity of this species under current (year 2020) and future (years 2030 and 2050) climatic scenarios. The effects of climate change on the distribution, abundance and activity of C. capitata are heterogeneous both in time and in space. A northward expansion of the species, an increase in the altitudinal limit marking the presence of the species, and an overall increase in population abundance is expected in areas that might become more suitable under a changing climate. On the contrary, stable or reduced population abundances can be expected in areas where climate change leads to equally suitable or less suitable conditions. This heterogeneity reflects the contribution of both spatial variability in the predicted climatic patterns and non-linearity in the responses of the species’ life-history strategies to temperature.

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Section: Model Assumptionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Following the method proposed in Gilioli et al (2016) and Pasquali et al (2020) we derived the temperature-dependent instantaneous mortality rate l T ð Þ from the finite mortality rate in (2)…”

Section: Mortality Rate Functionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Non-linear physiological responses to climate change: the case of Ceratitis capitata distribution and abundance in Europe

et al. 2021

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“…All simulations end at the 31st of December of the same year. The Kolmogorov equation used for simulating pest population dynamics and phenology in sub-model M2 is presented in Gilioli et al (2016Gilioli et al ( , 2021, Pasquali et al (2019Pasquali et al ( , 2020. The full mathematical description of the model presented here can be found in Section S1 of supplementary materials.…”

Section: )mentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling diapause termination and phenology of the Japanese beetle, Popillia japonica

et al. 2021

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We developed a mechanistic, stage-structured model simulating the phenology of Popillia japonica. The model simulates the influence of soil temperature on the larval diapause termination and on the development rate function of post-overwintering larvae and pupae. Model parameters are estimated based on literature evidence for pupae development and on a parameterisation process that allows estimating parameters for larval diapause termination and for the development rate function (and the related uncertainty) of post-overwintering larvae. Data used for model parameterisation and validation refer to time-series adult trap catches collected during the P. japonica monitoring programme performed by the Phytosanitary Service of Lombardy Region within the infested area in Lombardy (Italy) from 2015 to 2019. A total of 12 randomly selected locations are used to estimate biologically realistic model parameters (parameterisation dataset). We applied a Jackknife nonparametric resampling procedure on the parameterisation dataset to quantify uncertainty associated with parameters’ estimates. Parameterised model is then validated on time-series adult trap catches data referring to a different set of 12 randomly selected locations (validation dataset) surveyed in Lombardy. The model successfully predicted the beginning of adult emergence and the overall curve of adult emergence in the validation dataset. The model presented can support the definition of the best timing for the implementation of monitoring and control activities for the local and the area-wide management of P. japonica.

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“…aegypti Focks et al, 1993a,b; Otero et al, 2006; Da Re et al, 2021; Caldwell et al, 2021; for Ae. albopictus Tran et al, 2013; Erguler et al, 2016; Metelmann et al, 2019; Pasquali et al, 2020; Tran et al, 2020; for Ae. japonicus Wieser et al, 2019; for Ae.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

dynamAedes: a unified modelling framework for invasiveAedesmosquitoes

Bortel

Reuss

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Mosquito species belonging to the genus Aedes have attracted the interest of scientists and public health officers for their invasive species traits and efficient capacity of transmitting viruses affecting humans. Some of these species were brought outside their native range by human activities such as trade and tourism, and colonised new regions thanks to a unique combination of eco-physiological traits. Considering mosquito physiological and behavioural traits to understand and predict the spatial and temporal population dynamics is thus a crucial step to develop strategies to mitigate the local densities of invasive Aedes populations. Here, we synthesised the life cycle of four invasive Aedes species (Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus, Ae. japonicus and Ae. koreicus) in a single multi-scale stochastic modelling framework which we coded in the R package dynamAedes. We designed a stage-based and time-discrete stochastic model driven by temperature, photo-period and inter-specific larval competition that can be applied to three different spatial scales: punctual, local and regional. These spatial scales consider different degrees of spatial complexity and data availability, by accounting for both active and passive dispersal of mosquito species as well as for the heterogeneity of the input temperature data. Our overarching aim was to provide a flexible, open-source and user-friendly tool rooted in the most updated knowledge on species biology which could be applied to the management of invasive Aedes populations as well as for more theoretical ecological inquiries.

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Development and calibration of a model for the potential establishment and impact of Aedes albopictus in Europe

Cited by 24 publications

References 70 publications

Non-linear physiological responses to climate change: the case of Ceratitis capitata distribution and abundance in Europe

Non-linear physiological responses to climate change: the case of Ceratitis capitata distribution and abundance in Europe

Modelling diapause termination and phenology of the Japanese beetle, Popillia japonica

dynamAedes: a unified modelling framework for invasiveAedesmosquitoes

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