Developing socio-ecological scenarios: A participatory process for engaging stakeholders

Allan, Andrew; Barbour, Emily; Nicholls, Robert J.; Hutton, Craig W.; Lim, Michelle; Salehin, Mashfiqus; Rahman, Md. Munsur

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150512

Cited by 14 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Previous participatory scenario construction processes have proved useful to support governance [89]. The participatory process presented in this paper and the project that developed it has influenced policy making in Mozambique already.…”

Section: Policy Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…The inclusion of quantified consequences of the three scenarios (e.g., future land use change in percentages, or future changes of regional poverty rates) was very challenging [89]. Reasons for this difficulty were the complex relations between drivers of change, the qualitative focus of the work developed, the lack of expertise from all participants concerning all aspects of the process (they were experts in just one specific sector), and the lack of time to work with rigorous quantitative results.…”

Section: Assessing the Multi-scale Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Due to these circumstances, the results of quantifying land use change under each scenario contained contradictions and land use change rates much higher than the widely accepted ones. This learning implies specific time must be devoted to producing quantified results, and this process can benefit from an iterative process using modelling tools [89].…”

Section: Assessing the Multi-scale Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding Complex Relationships between Human Well-Being and Land Use Change in Mozambique Using a Multi-Scale Participatory Scenario Planning Process

et al. 2021

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The path for bringing millions of people out of poverty in Africa is likely to coincide with important changes in land use and land cover (LULC). Envisioning the different possible pathways for agricultural, economic and social development, and their implications for changes in LULC, ecosystem services and society well-being, will improve policy-making. This paper presents a case that uses a multi-scale participatory scenario planning method to facilitate the understanding of the complex interactions between LULC change and the wellbeing of the rural population and their possible future evolution in Mozambique up to 2035. Key drivers of change were identified: the empowerment of civil society, the effective application of legislation and changes in rural technologies (e.g., information and communications technologies and renewable energy sources). Three scenarios were constructed: one characterized by the government promoting large investments; a second scenario characterized by the increase in local community power and public policies to promote small and medium enterprises; and a third, intermediate scenario. All three scenarios highlight qualitative large LULC changes, either driven by large companies or by small and medium scale farmers. The scenarios have different impact in wellbeing and equity, the first one implying a higher rural to urban area migration. The results also show that the effective application of the law can produce different results, from assuring large international investments to assuring the improvement of social services like education, health care and extension services. Successful application of these policies, both for biodiversity and ecosystem services protection, and for the social services needed to improve the well-being of the Mozambican rural population, will have to overcome significant barriers.

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Section: Policy Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Assessing the Multi-scale Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Assessing the Multi-scale Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding Complex Relationships between Human Well-Being and Land Use Change in Mozambique Using a Multi-Scale Participatory Scenario Planning Process

et al. 2021

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“…To explore a range of combinations of environmental change and the effects of different policy drivers in the study area, 62 simulations were identi ed (Table S1-S2). The ensemble consisted of 36 climate and socioeconomic scenarios (co-developed with stakeholders 39 ) and a further 24 simulations which were used to explore the sensitivity of individual drivers. Each simulation covered the period 1985 to 2050, with 1985 to 2004 as the warm-up period, 2005 to 2014 as the baseline and 2015 to 2050 as the main focus of analysis.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Each Union comprises up to 9 villages with ~ 21,000 people over 26 km 2 on average. ΔDIEM was developed via sustained engagement with diverse Bangladeshi stakeholders at multiple levels of in uence, ranging from national Ministries and development agencies to local NGOs and academic experts 37,39 . ΔDIEM offers several advantages compared to earlier assessments by including: (i) climate, environmental and socio-economic drivers, (ii) interactions between model components including scale harmonisation, (iii) coastal management and governance, and (iv) household coping and adaptation at the local level for multiple archetypal household types.…”

Section: The Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

The climate-development nexus in coastal Bangladesh to 2050

Nicholls

Lázár

Hutton

et al. 2023

Preprint

Self Cite

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Climate change and economic growth are having a profound influence on the integrity of socio-economics and ecology of coastal Bangladesh. In the extreme, there are widespread expectations of inundation and coastal abandonment. However, results from our integrated assessment model (IAM) show that over the next 30 years, development choices might have a stronger influence on livelihoods and economic wellbeing than climate driven environmental change. The IAM simulates the economic development of rural areas by coupling physical models (driven by expectations of climate change) with economic models (informed by a series of policy decisions). This is done using substantial primary, secondary and stakeholder-derived biophysical and socio-economic datasets, together with shocks such as cyclones. The study analyses the future socio-ecological sensitivity to climate change and policy decisions and finds that well managed development is as important as adaptation to mitigate risks, reduce poverty and raise aggregate well-being. This analysis enables decision makers to identify appropriate development pathways that address current social-ecological vulnerability and develop a more resilient future to 2050 and beyond. These policy actions are complementary to climate adaptation and mitigation. Our IAM framework provides a valuable evidence-based tool to support sustainable coastal development and is transferable to other vulnerable delta regions and other coastal lowlands around the world.

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Participatory and Spatially Explicit Assessment to Envision the Future of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Scenarios on Selected Ecosystem Services in Southwestern Ghana

Asante-Yeboah,

Koo,

Ros-Tonen

et al. 2024

Environmental Management

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Settlement expansion and commercial agriculture affect landscape sustainability and ecosystem service provision. Integrated landscape approaches are promoted to negotiate trade-offs between competing land uses and their reconciliation. Incorporating local perceptions of landscape dynamics as basis for such negotiations is particularly relevant for sub-Saharan Africa, where most people depend on natural ecosystems for livelihoods and well-being. This study applied participatory scenario building and spatially explicit simulation to unravel perceptions of the potential impact of rubber and settlement expansion on the provision of selected ecosystem services in southwestern Ghana under a business-as-usual scenario. We collected data in workshops and expert surveys on locally relevant ecosystem services, their indicator values, and the probable land-use transitions. The data was translated into an assessment matrix and integrated into a spatially explicit modeling platform, allowing visualization and comparison of the impact on ecosystem service provision of land-use scenarios under rubber plantation and settlement expansion. The results show the capacity of current (2020) and future land-use patterns to provide locally relevant ecosystem services, indicating a decline in capacity of ecosystem service provisioning in the future compared to the 2020 land-use patterns, a threat to the benefits humans derive from ecosystems. This highlights urgent need for policies and measures to control the drivers of land-use/land-cover change. Furthermore, the results emphasize the importance of diversifying land-use/land-cover types for sustainable landscape development. The paper contributes new insights into how spatially explicit and semi-quantitative methods can make stakeholder perceptions of landscape dynamics explicit as a basis for implementing integrated landscape approaches.

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Developing socio-ecological scenarios: A participatory process for engaging stakeholders

Cited by 14 publications

References 46 publications

Understanding Complex Relationships between Human Well-Being and Land Use Change in Mozambique Using a Multi-Scale Participatory Scenario Planning Process

Understanding Complex Relationships between Human Well-Being and Land Use Change in Mozambique Using a Multi-Scale Participatory Scenario Planning Process

The climate-development nexus in coastal Bangladesh to 2050

Participatory and Spatially Explicit Assessment to Envision the Future of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Scenarios on Selected Ecosystem Services in Southwestern Ghana

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