Developing Country Exports of Manufactures: Moving Up the Ladder to Escape the Fallacy of Composition?

Razmi, Arslan; Blecker, Robert A.

doi:10.1080/13562570701722113

Cited by 80 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…The results using these two sets of prices were very similar to the results obtained using the first set of prices described in the text, i.e., export unit values for the developing countries and overall PPIs for the industrialised countries. 27 Some previous studies of developing country exports of manufactures (e.g., Faini et al, 1992) have used indices of export prices for the industrialised countries, although later studies (e.g., Razmi and Blecker, 2008, forthcoming) have used PPIs. As discussed in the previous note, the qualitative results reported here are not sensitive to this aspect of the specification.…”

Section: N It Zmentioning

confidence: 99%

The fallacy of composition and contractionary devaluations: output effects of real exchange rate shocks in semi-industrialised countries

Blecker¹,

Razmi²

2007

Cambridge Journal of Economics

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This paper studies whether intra-developing country price competition has significant effects on the short-run growth of output in developing countries that are specialized in manufactured exports. Regression estimates using the generalized method of moments (GMM) applied to annual panel data for 17 developing countries in show that these countries exhibit a 'fallacy of composition', in the sense that a real depreciation relative to competing developing country exporters increases the home country's growth rate in the short run. The results also suggest that real depreciations for these developing countries relative to the industrialised countries are contractionary.JEL Codes: O11, F43, O14, F32

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Section: N It Zmentioning

confidence: 99%

The fallacy of composition and contractionary devaluations: output effects of real exchange rate shocks in semi-industrialised countries

Blecker¹,

Razmi²

2007

Cambridge Journal of Economics

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“…5 See Mayer (2003), Kaplinsky (2005) and Razmi and Blecker (2008). 6 The products used include eight metals (aluminum, copper, iron ore, lead, nickel, silver, tin and zinc), seven non-food raw materials (cotton, jute, leather, rubber, timber, tobacco and wool), thirteen food products (rice, maize, wheat, sugar, bananas, soy beans, soy bean oil, palm oil, beef, lamb, swine meat, poultry and fish) and three beverages (cocoa, coffee and tea).…”

Section: Evolution Of the Commodity Terms Of Trade: A First Lookmentioning

confidence: 99%

The terms of trade for commodities since the mid-19^thcentury

Ocampo¹,

Parra-Lancourt²

2010

RHE / JILAEH

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This paper shows that there was an improvement in the barter terms of trade for non-fuel commodities vs. manufactures in the late 19 th and early 20 th centuries, followed by significant deterioration over the rest of the 20 th century. However, the decline over most of the 20 th century was neither continuous nor was it distributed evenly among different commodity groups. The far-reaching changes that the world economy underwent around 1920 and again around 1979 led to a stepwise deterioration which, over the long term, was reflected in roughly a halving of real commodity prices. Tropical agriculture fared the worst, whereas minerals had the best performance, with non-tropical agriculture in an intermediate situation. RESUMENEste ensayo muestra que hubo una mejoría en los términos de intercambio de trueque de los productos bá sicos a fines del siglo XIX y comienzos del XX, seguido por un deterioro significativo en el resto del siglo XX. Sin embargo, el deterioro durante la mayor parte del siglo XX no fue continuo ni se distribuyó en forma homogénea en diferentes grupos de productos. Los cambios de largo alcance que experimentó la economía mundial en torno a 1920 y nuevamente a 1979 se reflejaron en una caída escalonada, que a largo plazo redujo los precios reales de productos bá sicos aproximadamente a la mitad. La agricultura tropical experimentó el peor desempeñ o y la minería el mejor, con la agricultura no tropical en una situació n intermedia. El incremento de los precios que se experimentó en la primera década del siglo XXI puede ser el inicio de una nueva fase de alza de larga duració n, pero es demasiado temprano para saberlo.Palabras clave: Productos bá sicos, términos de intercambio, hipó tesis de Prebisch-Singer, cambios estructurales

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“…İmalat sanayi, bu süreçte en çok hedeflenen sektörlerden biri olmuş, birçok ekonomide imalat sanayinin ihracat içerisindeki payı son yıllarda hızla artmıştır. Ancak ihracata dayalı büyüme stratejilerinin Türkiye ve benzeri gelişmekte olan ekonomilerinde beklenen ölçüde başarılı sonuçlar vermediği tartışmasız bir gerçektir (Blecker, 2003;Razmi/Blecker, 2005). Türkiye halen imalat sanayi ürünleri ihracatında uluslararası iş bölümünde emek yoğun sektörlerde uzmanlaşma gösteren ve bu sektörlerde ticaret fazlası veren bir ekonomi konumundadır (Grafik 1) (Köse/Öncü, 2004).…”

Section: Giriþunclassified

Artan ‘Rekabet’ Altında İhracata Yönelik Sektörlerde Değişen Ücret Yapısı

Memiş¹

2007

Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi

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ÖzetBu çalışmada, emek-yoğun ürünlerin ihracatında son yıllarda uluslararası düzeyde artan 'rekabet' koşullarının ücret yapısı üzerinde oluşabilecek etkilerini çatışan bölüşüm talepleri çerçevesinde bir modelleme ile açıklamayı amaçlıyoruz. Türkiye ekonomisi örneğinde gözlemlediğimiz gibi, 1990'lı yılların başlarından itibaren verilen uluslararası taahhütler kapsamında dış ticarette tam liberalleşme politikalarının uygulamasına geçilmiş ve ihracatı destekleme amaçlı oluşturulmuş teşvik, prim ve sübvansiyonlar azaltılmış veya kaldırılmıştır. Bunun yanı sıra, birçok gelişmekte olan ülke ekonomilerinin artık benzer ürünleri ihraç eder duruma gelmesiyle esnek hale gelen ihracat talep yapısı göz önüne alındığında, gelişmekte olan ülke ekonomilerinin ihracata dayalı 'büyüme' rejiminden büyük beklenti içinde olmalarıyla bileşim yanıltısı kurbanı olduklarını göstermektedir. Bu bağlamda, sunacağımız model, ihracat teşviklerindeki azalma ile tetiklenen bir sistem içinde, esnek bir ihracat talep varsayımı ve dolayısıyla ihraç edilen ürünlerde fiyat artışlarının sınırlı olması durumunu göz önünde bulundurmaktadır.Anahtar Kelimeler: Ücret yapısı, emeğin feminizasyonu, çatışan bölüşüm talepleri, rekabet, ihracat sektörleri. Changing Wage Structure in Export Sectors under Rising Competition AbstractIn this paper, we aim to develop a model within a conflicting-claims framework to explain possible implications of changing conditions of competition on the the wage patterns particularly in the labor-intensive export sectors. As it can be observed in the Turkish economy, starting with 1990s, there has been major changes in states' policies accomodating the export sectors consistent with international commitments. Throughout this process, several subsidy mechanisms were either weakened or dismantled. At the same time, as many developing economies turned out to be the exporters of similar manufacturing products with the switch to export-led growth strategies, we observe that the structure of the demand for such products has become more elastic. This latter puts forward the fact that many of developing economies fell victim to the fallacy of composition problem in their expectations about export-led growth. Considering the elastic export demand that puts a major constraint on the prices of export goods, the model we present shows how the change in the profit rate triggered by a one time change in export subsidy rates results in different real wage patterns over time.

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Developing Country Exports of Manufactures: Moving Up the Ladder to Escape the Fallacy of Composition?

Abstract: ABSTRACT

Cited by 80 publications

References 31 publications

The fallacy of composition and contractionary devaluations: output effects of real exchange rate shocks in semi-industrialised countries

The fallacy of composition and contractionary devaluations: output effects of real exchange rate shocks in semi-industrialised countries

The terms of trade for commodities since the mid-19^thcentury

Artan ‘Rekabet’ Altında İhracata Yönelik Sektörlerde Değişen Ücret Yapısı

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Developing Country Exports of Manufactures: Moving Up the Ladder to Escape the Fallacy of Composition?

Abstract: ABSTRACT

Cited by 80 publications

References 31 publications

The fallacy of composition and contractionary devaluations: output effects of real exchange rate shocks in semi-industrialised countries

The fallacy of composition and contractionary devaluations: output effects of real exchange rate shocks in semi-industrialised countries

The terms of trade for commodities since the mid-19thcentury

Artan ‘Rekabet’ Altında İhracata Yönelik Sektörlerde Değişen Ücret Yapısı

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The terms of trade for commodities since the mid-19^thcentury