Developing an Event Tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius

Neri, Augusto; Aspinall, Willy; Cioni, Raffaello; Bertagnini, A.; Baxter, Peter; Zuccaro, Giulio; Andronico, Daniele; Barsotti, Sara; Cole, Paul; Ongaro, Tomaso Esposti; Hincks, Thea; Macedonio, Giovanni; Papale, Paolo; Rosi, Mauro; Santacroce, Roberto; Woo, Gordon

doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.05.014

Cited by 207 publications

(155 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…For example, when a quantitative evaluation of possible outcomes of interaction relationships is possible, probability trees can be used to assess networks of hazard interactions (e.g. Neri et al, 2008;Marzocchi et al, 2009;Neri et al, 2013). Probability trees are used to visually represent the possible outcomes of an event and add associated probabilities.…”

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confidence: 99%

Hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) within multi-hazard methodologies

2016

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Abstract. This paper combines research and commentary to reinforce the importance of integrating hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) into multi-hazard methodologies. We present a synthesis of the differences between multi-layer single-hazard approaches and multi-hazard approaches that integrate such interactions. This synthesis suggests that ignoring interactions between important environmental and anthropogenic processes could distort management priorities, increase vulnerability to other spatially relevant hazards or underestimate disaster risk. In this paper we proceed to present an enhanced multi-hazard framework through the following steps: (i) description and definition of three groups (natural hazards, anthropogenic processes and technological hazards/disasters) as relevant components of a multi-hazard environment, (ii) outlining of three types of interaction relationship (triggering, increased probability, and catalysis/impedance), and (iii) assessment of the importance of networks of interactions (cascades) through case study examples (based on the literature, field observations and semi-structured interviews). We further propose two visualisation frameworks to represent these networks of interactions: hazard interaction matrices and hazard/process flow diagrams. Our approach reinforces the importance of integrating interactions between different aspects of the Earth system, together with human activity, into enhanced multi-hazard methodologies. Multi-hazard approaches support the holistic assessment of hazard potential and consequently disaster risk. We conclude by describing three ways by which understanding networks of interactions contributes to the theoretical and practical understanding of hazards, disaster risk reduction and Earth system management. Understanding interactions and interaction networks helps us to better (i) model the observed reality of disaster events, (ii) constrain potential changes in physical and social vulnerability between successive hazards, and (iii) prioritise resource allocation for mitigation and disaster risk reduction.

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confidence: 99%

Hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) within multi-hazard methodologies

2016

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“…That being said, we note that full PVHA is still quite rare (Magill et al 2006;Ho et al 2006;Neri et al 2008;Marti et al 2008 are among the few exceptions).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 75%

“…Despite its importance, volcanic hazard assessment is still commonly presented in many different ways, ranging from maps of past deposits of the volcano to more quantitative probabilistic assessment (e.g., Scandone et al 1993;Newhall and Hoblitt 2002;Marzocchi et al 2004;Martin et al 2004;Neri et al 2008;Marti et al 2008). The latter, being quantitative, has remarkable advantages: (1) it allows comparisons among different volcanoes and with other natural and nonnatural hazards, (2) its reliability can be tested through statistical procedures, and (3) it provides a basic component for rationale decision making (e.g., Marzocchi andWoo 2007, 2009;Woo 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic hazard assessment

2010

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In this paper, we illustrate a Bayesian Event Tree to estimate Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH). The procedure enables us to calculate the probability of any kind of long-term hazardous event for which we are interested, accounting for the intrinsic stochastic nature of volcanic eruptions and our limited knowledge regarding related processes. For the input, the code incorporates results from numerical models simulating the impact of hazardous volcanic phenomena on an area and data from the eruptive history. For the output, the code provides a wide and exhaustive set of spatiotemporal probabilities of different events; these probabilities are estimated by means of a Bayesian approach that allows all uncertainties to be properly accounted for. The code is able to deal with many eruptive settings simultaneously, weighting each with its own probability of occurrence. In a companion paper, we give a detailed example of application of this tool to the Campi Flegrei caldera, in order to estimate the hazard from tephra fall.

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“…On the other hand, RiskScape Volcano offers the possibility of carrying out either fully probabilistic risk assessment with event trees (e.g. Neri et al, 2008;Marzocchi et al, 2004) or scenario-based risk assessment, which are commonly used by local authorities for decision-making or mitigation. This software incorporates hazard and vulnerability models for a wide range of volcanic phenomena and the focus is put on critical infrastructures such as lifeline networks or strategic facilities, with less emphasis on residential buildings.…”

Section: A Brief Review Of Existing Volcanic Risk Scenario Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential and limitations of risk scenario tools in volcanic areas through an example at Mount Cameroon

Gehl

Quinet

Cozannet

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This paper presents an integrated approach to conduct a scenario-based volcanic risk assessment on a variety of exposed assets, such as residential buildings, cultivated areas, network infrastructures or individual strategic buildings. The focus is put on the simulation of scenarios, based on deterministic adverse event input, which are applied to the case study of an effusive eruption on the Mount Cameroon volcano, resulting in the damage estimation of the assets located in the area. The work is based on the recent advances in the field of seismic risk. A software for systemic risk scenario analysis developed within the FP7 project SYNER-G has been adapted to address the issue of volcanic risk. Most significant improvements include the addition of vulnerability models adapted to each kind of exposed element and the possibility to quantify the successive potential damages inflicted by a sequence of adverse events (e.g. lava flows, tephra fall, etc.). The use of an object-oriented architecture gives the opportunity to model and compute the physical damage of very disparate types of infrastructures under the same framework. Finally, while the risk scenario approach is limited to the assessment of the physical impact of adverse events, a specific focus on strategic infrastructures and a dialogue with stakeholders helps in evaluating the potential wider indirect consequences of an eruption.

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Developing an Event Tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius

Cited by 207 publications

References 40 publications

Hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) within multi-hazard methodologies

Hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) within multi-hazard methodologies

BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic hazard assessment

Potential and limitations of risk scenario tools in volcanic areas through an example at Mount Cameroon

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