Developing a Scenario Planning Process Using a Blank Piece of Paper

Yeoman, Ian; McMahon‐Beattie, Una

doi:10.1057/palgrave.thr.6040026

Cited by 39 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 7 publications

(8 reference statements)

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“…Applications in tourism cover a range of subjects such as climate change scenarios (for ski and coastal tourism), destination environmental footprint and transition management (Gössling & Scott, 2012;Formica & Kothari, 2008). The evidence of scenarios in tourism has one common trait, they all incorporated stakeholders in the development, which Yeoman and McMahon-Beattie (2004) argued to be crucial in improving the quality of the scenarios. However, Gössling and Scott's (2012) observation that scenarios are less applied in tourism than other industries have been confirmed in the literature review.…”

Section: Scenario Approach To Tourism Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strategic foresight for (coastal) urban tourism market complexity: The case of Bournemouth

Carlisle

Johansen²,

Kunc

2016

Tourism Management

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Copyright and reuse:The Warwick Research Archive Portal (WRAP) makes this work by researchers of the University of Warwick available open access under the following conditions. Copyright © and all moral rights to the version of the paper presented here belong to the individual author(s) and/or other copyright owners. To the extent reasonable and practicable the material made available in WRAP has been checked for eligibility before being made available.Copies of full items can be used for personal research or study, educational, or not-forprofit purposes without prior permission or charge. Provided that the authors, title and full bibliographic details are credited, a hyperlink and/or URL is given for the original metadata page and the content is not changed in any way. Corresponding author Acknowledgements:We are very grateful with the time and effort taken by the editor and reviewers who provided constructive and insightful suggestions to improve our paper in a substantial way. 2 Abstract:This paper discusses an approach to evaluate and analyse strategic planning in multifunctional complexities of coastal urban areas with conflicts regarding leisure space which restricts the diversity of tourism segments using an urban locale. The paper proposes a holistic and multi-faceted systems approach to analysing such multi-purpose use of urban spaces with a case study of Bournemouth where the needs of overseas language students and high spending tourists can present an interesting challenge to urban planners. The systems approach advocates integration and alliances in investment incentives to help identify alternative urban use strategies in tourism and leisure contexts which allows for re-branding of an urban area whilst extending the product offer.

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Section: Scenario Approach To Tourism Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strategic foresight for (coastal) urban tourism market complexity: The case of Bournemouth

Carlisle

Johansen²,

Kunc

2016

Tourism Management

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“…Given the unavailability of a suitable methodology, Shoemaker's (1995) scenario planning process was used as the methodological underpinning. Scenario planning is a strategic management tool whereby businesses speculate about possible futures with a view to for mulating strategies that could be implemented should one of these scenarios have concensus (Gummesson, 2000;Johnson et al, 2005;Yeoman & McMahon-Beattie, 2005). This involves looking at external factors that could impact on the organization.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using Scenarios to Investigate Stakeholders' views on the Future of a Sporting Event

Moital¹,

Jackson²,

Couillard³

2013

Event Management

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The aim of this research was to identify if the continuation of a sporting event was supported by its stakeholders and what their objectives were for its future. Using a methodology adapted from scenario planning, the research investigated if the stakeholders desired the event to grow, and if so, in which areas and to what level. The finding was that the stakeholders supported its growth. They viewed the sporting event as being a small-scale to medium-scale event and saw it growing to become a medium- to large-scale event. A key finding was that the stakeholders had conflicting views about its future features, and this was due to their varying backgrounds and objectives set for the event. The results of this research emphasize the need for both researchers and practitioners to be more fully aware of the similarities and differences in stakeholder objectives in a dynamic, rather than static, environment.

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“…Scenario-building has a recognized role in the tourism and aviation literature as discussed by several researchers [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]. However, note the caveat: Most of these scenario exercises consider aviation or tourism in silos, rather than in an integrated manner.…”

Section: Methodological Underpinningsmentioning

confidence: 99%

2050 Scenarios for Long-Haul Tourism in the Evolving Global Climate Change Regime

2012

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Tourism and its "midwife", aviation, are transnational sectors exposed to global uncertainties. This scenario-building exercise considers a specific subset of these uncertainties, namely the impact of the evolving global climate change regime on long-haul tourism (LHT), with a 2050 horizon. The basic problematique is that unconstrained growth in aviation emissions will not be compatible with 2050 climate stabilisation goals, and that the stringency and timing of public policy interventions could have far-reaching impacts-either on the market for future growth of LHT, or the natural ecosystem on which tourism depends. Following an intuitive-logic approach to scenario-building, three meta-level scenarios that can be regarded as "possible" futures for the evolution of LHT are described. Two of these, i.e., the "grim reaper" and the "fallen angel" scenarios, are undesirable. The "green lantern" scenario represents the desired future. Long-haul tourist destinations should heed the early warning signals identified in the scenario narratives, and contribute towards realising the desired future. They should further guard against being passive victims if the feared scenarios materialise, by adapting, repositioning early upon reading the signposts, hedging against risks, and seizing new opportunities.

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Developing a Scenario Planning Process Using a Blank Piece of Paper

Cited by 39 publications

References 7 publications

Strategic foresight for (coastal) urban tourism market complexity: The case of Bournemouth

Strategic foresight for (coastal) urban tourism market complexity: The case of Bournemouth

Using Scenarios to Investigate Stakeholders' views on the Future of a Sporting Event

2050 Scenarios for Long-Haul Tourism in the Evolving Global Climate Change Regime

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