Developing a Risk Prediction Model for Early Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence After Maze Procedure

Abstract

Background:The efficiency of maze is a safe procedure in AF patients who underwent concomitant mitral valve surgery was more than 60%. The aim of this study was to define predictors of early AF recurrence after concomitant maze procedure with valvular surgery. Methods: In this retrospective study, 234 patients with AF underwent concomitant valvular replacement and maze procedure. Patients were classified into 2 groups of sinus and atrial fibrillation (AF). Baseline characteristics of patients were then compared between 2 groups. Results: Totally, 234 patients were enrolled, 148 of which maintained sinus rhythm during hospitalization. Left atrial diameter and type of valvular surgery were similar in both groups. Age, number of replaced valves, concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting, and history of preoperative persistent AF and beta-blocker therapy were independent predictors of in-hospital AF recurrence. We used these variables to build a model to anticipate early AF recurrence. Conclusions: Being older, multivalvular surgery, and persistent preoperative AF were the predictors of higher risk of early recurrent AF, whereas concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting and using beta-blocker had a protective effect. This model based on preoperative and operative characteristics can help us to better evaluate if the patient benefits from maze procedure coincide with valvular surgery.